Racing: Queen of Park likely to reign

Glamour mare One Over Kenny highlights tonight's card at Alexandra Park. Photo / Brett Phibbs

Two facts tell us why One Over Kenny should win her comeback race even off a 65m handicap at Alexandra Park tonight.

The first is that the champion mare is even starting in the $10,000 event off such a massive backmark.

And the second in your favour, if you choose to take the short odds for One Over Kenny, is time. Or, more specifically, winning times.

New Zealand's only ever millionaire trotting mare returns from a 16-month layoff - forced by a quarter crack - tonight in a race she was forced into after the race she was originally nominated for was canned because of a lack of opposition.

Trainer Tony Herlihy has decided to let her start off 65m, even though no horse has won off a handicap that imposing at Alexandra Park since 1992, when Idle Scott triumphed off 70m and 65m in consecutive starts.

But Idle Scott was race fit and the ultimate iron-horse, whereas One Over Kenny hasn't raced since May 1 last year when she won the Rowe Cup.

She has, however, had two solid workouts to clean out the cobwebs in preparation for tonight.

As a 9-year-old she can't be expected to be at her best even after those but the fact Herlihy has elected to let her run may just about be all punters need to know.

"It is not ideal but the front line of the race doesn't look that strong so maybe the 65m isn't as bad as it looks," said Herlihy.

"She has to start somewhere and I'd like to get this run under her belt."

So can she win?

"Well, she is going to be playing catch up for a while chasing the leaders but she is working well and has the class to win," said Herlihy.

"So the tempo of the race will play a part but I wouldn't start her unless I thought she would be competitive."

So that is the opinion of the main man, but if you want to take the short odds you may want something a little more substantial to chew over.

And a quick scan of the times One Over Kenny and her rivals can trot indicate she can overcome the massive handicap.

One Over Kenny has trotted 3:26 for a standing start 2700m, albeit when at her peak.

Even below her best tonight - and let's be generous and allow her three seconds of slack - she should be able to trot 3:29 for 2700m if the track is fast.

At that speed, being off 65m, she is giving the front markers about a five-second start.

If they run up to their peak previous performances that won't be enough to stop One Over Kenny winning.

The same applies to every rival as you go back through the field, with Illuminati (3:32 for 2700m) off 20m and Mya Grace (3:30) but off 30m the best placed handicaps to times recorded-wise.

Alien Waits, who has trotted 3:30 but starts off 55m behind, is clearly too close to One Over Kenny in the handicaps, while Mya Grace and Illuminati have some small hope if you analyse their times purely but that doesn't tell the full story.

Their fastest times have been when chasing other horses home, not set when winning.

Their best winning times are four to five seconds behind the 3:29 One Over Kenny can probably trot tonight and they simply aren't getting that much of a start off her.

So, in reality, if One Over Kenny trots even within three seconds of her best she should win and the best place chances will be Mya Grace, Illuminati, Alien Waits and Sunny's Bar, depending on who feels up for the fight.

Safely through tonight, One Over Kenny will have some more serious opposition next start, with exciting trotter Raydon expected to be among her rivals on September 24.

TROTTER RETURNS
* One Over Kenny makes her comeback at Alexandra Park tonight.

* She faces a 65m handicap in her trot event.

* The millionaire mare hasn't raced since winning the Rowe Cup 16 months ago.

* She has won two recent workouts to prepare for tonight's race.