Racing: Punters should wait for value

Punters need to attack tomorrow's $1.5 million Harness Jewels meeting with exactly the opposite attitude to the drivers involved on the glamour day.

For the horse people involved tomorrow the madness of the mile at Cambridge means those who wait will probably regret it on a track where coming wide is nearly impossible.

It should make for thrilling racing and more than a few hard-luck stories, with a conservative attitude likely to be punished as severely as it was at the first Cambridge Jewels two seasons ago.

While patience and mile races at Cambridge rarely go together, in the case of punters, waiting could be the best way to squeeze what little value there may be in some races.

When horses like Miami H, De Lovely and Russley Rascal drew well they were always going to start short and after opening at fair fixed odds prices they have all caved in to ridiculous money.

None more so than Russley Rascal who was $1.30 to win the 3-year-old pacing division last night, even against Sir Lincoln, Kotare Mach, Franco Jamar and Captain Peacock.

The problem is multi betting, which is what cost the TAB hundreds of thousands when a string of favourite won at the Jewels two years ago.

Harness punters, because of the greater percentage of short-priced favourites compared with thoroughbred racing, have fallen in love with multi betting.

So much so, they are willing to take $1.30 in multi bets for horses who eventually start $1.60, which is twice the profit margin.

Take Russley Rascal, who should win but doesn't deserve to be $1.30. The reason he is?

Punters are willing take it.

"I said to the boys in the office this week, why put him out to a $1.40 or $1.50 when people keep taking $1.30 in the multis?" asked TAB bookmaker Steve Richardson.

"We could get to the last race and be losing $250,000 on Russley Rascal in multis which is why he is kept so short."

The same applies to Beaudiene Bad Babe, Better Cover Lover, Miami H and De Lovely, all of whom have been coupled up in a long list of multi bets.

But that could have an upside for punters who aren't involved yet and are willing to wait.

While the fixed odds markets are getting silly, the tote pools tomorrow will be huge, especially with Sky Channel in Australia having massive coverage of the meeting which will coax Australian money in the pools.

So big punters will be able to have a decent tote bet without seeing their odds crash in.

Should one or two of those early favourites lose, those who wait will be able to pounce later.

"If some of those early favourites, even one of them, lose then we are a lot less likely to be carrying huge liabilities into the latter races and we will be able to take more of a chance on the De Lovelys and Russley Rascals," says Richardson.

That means those who have sorted out a special tomorrow are better taking tote odds earlier in the day or a mixture of tote and fixed later depending on how the favourites fare.

As for finding winners, well gate speed and being in the first half of the field at the 800m will be crucial, especially for the 3- and 4-year-olds who won't get tired over a mile.

For trifecta and First4 punters any horse with the speed to lead or trail is a must for combinations even if it is lengths inferior to others in the race.

A Cambridge mile takes the field around three bends, with being against the markers saving a horse almost two lengths per bend over a horse in the running line, and 3.5 lengths on horses moving three wide.

Realising that, and being patient when confronted with silly fixed odds, will go a long way toward making you some money at Cambridge tomorrow.

THE BIG THREE
* Best bet: Russley Rascal.
* Best each-way: Sleepy Tripp.
* Best roughie: Latheronwheel.