"It looks terrible," says Pike. "They are predicting between 40mls and 80mls of rain on the day, so it looks dodgy." Provocative has yet to race on a track so badly rain-affected and Pike is keeping an open mind.
"The worst she's struck is a Dead 6 at home, but if the forecasts are right this will be a lot worse than that.
"I can't for certain say she wouldn't handle it, but it will certainly put a few of the other fillies out of business and one thing I know about my filly is that if she can get any sort of grip on the track at all she will see what will be a very tough race right out and stay the 2400m. There will be a few that won't do that."
The Oaks is a nightmare for punters - the first four favourites Dawnie Perfect, Bjorn Baker's Imposing Lass, Romantic Maid and Falkenberg are joined at the top of the table on $7. Provocative is on $8, but would be the standout favourite if already in the field.
"I quite like Dawnie Perfect, I saw her work on Tuesday morning and liked what she did," said Pike.
Facing Provocative if she runs in the Eagle Farm Cup will be Volkstok'n'barrell, who has come up as the $2.70 favourite on the tab.com.au.
Ellerslie chances
• Bouncing back: Gesemi, R6 Ellerslie: Might be wise to disregard the couple of runs since a spell. Gets a good opportunity to come back to it here.
• Better here: Fascination Street, R5 Ellerslie. Forget the run on a deep Rotorua surface last start. She runs well at Ellerslie and looks placed here.
• Value: Annabelinda, R8 Ellerslie. Did well for second last week and although this is a useful field, she will be at ideal each-way odds.