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Home / Sport / Racing

Racing: Probabeel to face top opponent in A$200,000 Cockram Stakes at Caulfield

By Michael Guerin
NZ Herald·
26 Aug, 2021 12:00 PM4 mins to read

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Damian Lane will be riding Probabeel this weekend. Photo / Getty

Damian Lane will be riding Probabeel this weekend. Photo / Getty

It took only a few minutes this week for Probabeel to allay any concerns champion jockey Damian Lane had about her fitness heading into her comeback race at Caulfield tomorrow.

However, Lane still warns punters the superstar Kiwi galloper could be vulnerable because of her draw and one key opponent.

"She is the class horse of the field but Instant Celebrity is going to be hard to beat," Lane told the Herald.

Probabeel, who looks the New Zealand Horse of the Year in waiting, resumes in the A$200,000 Cockram Stakes at Caulfield on the same card she was originally going to contest the A$1million Memsie.

A slight blood setback two weeks ago scuttled the Memsie plans but the Cockram looks an ideal comeback race, a Group 3 1200m against mares. While Probabeel has to carry 60kgs that is only 4kgs above the minimum.

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Being her first start since April and with Probabeel not only a big mare but a noted lazy trialist there is the concern that she may not be fit enough to win fresh-up.

But Lane rode the multiple Group 1 winner in work and Tuesday and loved what she felt.

"She worked really well and I have no concerns about her fitness," says Lane.

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"She feels great and is ready to go to the race so her condition isn't a problem. I am very happy with where she is at."

Probabeel easily won a similar race, the Bellmaine Stakes, fresh-up last campaign in February, carrying 60kgs over 1200m against the mares at Caulfield after having to travel wide.

Lane says while Probabeel is undoubtedly the best horse in tomorrow's race the field is stronger than the one she beat in her February resumption.

"The field is definitely better with horses like Instant Celebrity and even Rich Hips in it.

"Instant Celebrity is a real Group 1 mare and because we have drawn barrier 10 we are likely to be wide whereas she will be closer to the speed and the rail.

"So it might come down to what type of run we get versus what type of run she gets.

"I don't have any knock on Probabeel, we all know she is a great mare, but I do respect the other mare."

Instant Celebrity not only has the better draw but loves Caulfield, having won a Group 2 there last spring and finished third in the 1000 Guineas, while she is a proven Group 1 sprinter, having won the Sangster in South Australia and finished second in the Goodwood there.

She also won a recent Pakenham trial well so looks a real test for Probabeel fresh-up tomorrow.

Later on the Caulfield programme Lane will ride former West Australian mare Inspirational Girl in the A$1million Memsie Stakes in which she clashes with Cambridge class act Aegon.

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Inspirational Girl won nine of 12 in WA including the Group 1 Railway and has joined the Danny O'Brien barn to chase the Victorian riches.

"She is a really good mare and the class to run with these horses but she might get back of midfield from her inside draw which can be a tough way to win," says Lane.

"But I think she will be hitting the line hard."

Aegon could be in a similar situation, needing a good speed to give him the chance to swoop late in his first start since April.

Further north an improvement in track conditions will be needed for Matamata colt Sword Of State to make his Australian debut at Kembla Grange.

He is in a star-studded San Domenico moved from Rosehill but rain in the Wollongong area has the Kembla track rated a Heavy 9 which isn't suitable for Sword Of State so it wouldn't surprise to see him scratched.

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One Kiwi who will be suited by a heavy track though is Quick Thinker, who contests a winnable A$160,000 race over 2000m with Hugh Bowman aboard.

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