KEY POINTS:
Mark Walker says the chances of Princess Coup in the $250,000 Mudgway Partsworld Stakes depend on two important factors.
One of those factors Walker will be aware of before the race ... one he won't.
"Everything depends on how the track is and what tempo they run," said
Walker yesterday.
Last year Princess Coup finished well back in the Mudgway, improved for the 1600m Stoney Bridge on the middle day then brilliantly won the $2 million Kelt Capital Stakes.
Everything about Princess Coup this time suggests she is better and more forward than at the corresponding time a year ago.
But to be competitive at 1400m at this level she needs plenty of speed on throughout, which allows the back runners to possibly get home over the top of the leaders late on.
A sit-and-sprint Mudgway would completely eliminate rule the likes of Princess Coup.
There is every chance of there being speed at least for the first 400m to 500m.
Martini Red has drawn the middle of the line at No 10 and as a speed horse is certain to press forward quickly to avoid being left wide in mid-field.
Princess Coup's stablemate Insouciant is very likely to challenge for the speed from gate 6.
Who Knows (11) will also possibly come across those inside him, ensuring that whoever leads will not get away with soft sectionals.
The Hastings track was yesterday rated at a slow 8, the same as Wednesday's reading. That surprised some locals because there had been no rain.
Hastings assistant manager Kim Treweek said he would be surprised if the track does not race better than whatever the official reading is tomorrow.
"When I walk on the track it feels a lot better than a slow track," he said. "The course was cored about four weeks ago, which loosens the soil structure and perhaps that's making the reading worse than it actually is."
The Hastings forecast is for a few showers today.
Mark Walker is not ruling out his chances with Princess Coup.
In February, after a three-month break following her unplaced run in the Melbourne Cup, Princess Coup finished fourth - beaten just half a length - in the group one Orr Stakes over 1400m in Melbourne.
"If there is genuine pace on and the track is just dead then I give her a winning chance."
The Matamata trainer is less sure what to expect from Insouciant, who wilted to a disappointing fourth behind Mufhasa when resuming at Taupo recently.
"She might have done a bit better if Opie [Bosson] had ridden her quietly after being slow to jump. He gave her a dig and she got overracing.
"But she was still disappointing. If she doesn't fire this time she'll be visiting Red Ransom."
The fast pace element is also likely to prove critical to the chances of favourite Fritzy Boy.
Like Princess Coup, Fritzy Boy is more of a staying type. From the inside draw, Noel Harris will be extremely reluctant to kick up early and the likely scenario is that he will be somewhere close to mid-field on the rail. Harris will hope the leaders come back to allow the underrated Fritzy Boy to run over the top of the leaders in the final 150m.
* Last night's TAB prices: $6 Fritzy Boy; $6.50 Bulginbaah; $8 Sterling Prince, Keepa Cruisin; $9 Princess Coup; $11 Lovetrista; $14 Insouciant; $15 Martini Red; $17 The Pooka; $18 Who Knows, Run Like Al, Ististar, Mufhasa, Altered Image; $21 Prince Kaapstad, Irlanda, Gaze; $31 The Veep, Izzat; $61 Ombre Rose.
SEEKING SPEED
* The chances of Princess Coup depend on a decent track and a fast pace.
* Trainer Mark Walker gives the high class mare a winning chance if she gets those two factors going her way.
* It appears likely there will be good pace early in the race.