It's a great time of year to get top early odds on emerging 3-year-olds before they make a real name for themselves.
Kapoor in today's $50,000 Soliloquy Stakes at Ellerslie looks a likely candidate for that. There was something a bit special the way she put away a maiden field at Taupo last start and although she jumps up in class for this she looks capable of measuring up.
She has a slightly awkward barrier from the 1400m, but has in-form Troy Harris to guide her. Yesterday the TAB had her rated at $11 and $3.50 on Final Field.
Plenty of chances with Dijon Bleu having won her last two and Belle Du Nord with plenty of class. She was well beaten last start after a great first-up run, but was freshened and looked game beating Romancer in a recent barrier trial at Ruakaka. Florence Jean has been withdrawn after a persistent cough failed to resolve but Princess Rihanna will help make a competitive race.
Sheridan each way looks the way to start the day at Ellerslie. He looks capable on most types of track and with rain clearly evident through the middle of yesterday there was every possibility of a downgrade on the dead official rating on the website yesterday. Gold Rose is starting to find the form she always looked capable of. There was a bit to like about her most recent win and the 3kg Jasmine Fawsett takes off her back will be valuable. Rocanic's latest form shows she has been underrated. She is stepping up, but is capable and won't mind if the track is downgraded.
Only eight runners in Race 4 and it's one of the toughest on the card. Maid Of Steel (No3) would have been ready to return to form - her second-up record is great - but she has no real record when the footing is rain-affected, which is unusual for the stock of Guillotine. If the footing is still okay today don't leave her out of multiples. Somethingvain (No5) is underrated and can run a high race fresh, as can Marky Mark (No7). Then you have Ronchi (No1) who buried a good field at Ruakaka last time. Tough race.
Crafty Jess (No9, R5) is not going to mind if the track takes a downturn. Her three wins have each come on heavy footing. The rider dropped the whip in the home straight when she was beaten one length into third at Matamata last start. The ever consistent Greencast (No6) drops back from middle distance racing, but he has been freshened and has twice been victorious over this metric mile. Thought the talented Blizzard (No1) had his chance to win in a small field at Tauranga last time and rated as disappointing. He's better than that, but has to carry his full 59.5kg with visiting Australian apprentice Zac Spain unable to claim a reduction.
Repeat (No13, R8) looks a good prospect in the last at Ellerslie. She resumed with a good fourth at 1200m, close up, and will appreciate the step to 1400m. The footing does not mean a lot to her judging by her record and she will be very competitive. Warset (No14) was huge winning on debut and is one to follow. It is not easy to win your first two career races. Spirited Away (No15) and Viktor Vegas (No6) should be included in multiples.
Hiflyer (No5, R7) looks the best bet at Trentham. He is all class, but he will require the track to stay in decent shape. Don't be fooled by the fact he has won at Trentham in the heavy - he is much better on firmish ground. The lightweighted Tessastock (No13) could be an interesting inclusion for the multiples.The final at Trentham, Race 8, is one of the better races. No one could begrudge The Bandito (No6) a win after two very good seconds. The 2kg Tim Johnson will take off his 59kg will be very valuable in the closing stages. Plenty of chances, so the trifecta and first4 will be chased hard. Embellish (No11) is extra smart and will take beating and Keep It Savvy (No1) will be right in the action. The Bandito and Embellish looks a nice quinella.
Unless you are punting in volumes of $5000 upwards, all you will get from backing Winx to win her third Cox Plate at Moonee Valley today is a round of drinks. The flip side of that is there is zero risk.
Once you add another runner, or you bet the difficult win-margin punt, the risk arrives. Okay there is no way of getting rich on the punt in the race, but you will be a lot richer in terms of what you've seen in a thoroughbred race. Revel in watching a total perfectionist in trainer Chris Waller and Australia's coolest jockey Hugh Bowman. For all the glamour and spotlight Bowman has found himself in sitting on Winx's back, he has not once tried to steal even a second of the fame and he'll be the same this afternoon. Don't be fooled, he's every bit as sharp as Winx.
An each way bet early in the day at Moonee Valley could be Thelburg (No7). He has won fresh in the past, John Sadler is good at producing that type of winner, it has a soft barrier at No3 and one of the best, Craig Williams, on his back.
Single Bullet (No1, R3) deserves a win after two excellent seconds. Tim Clarke takes the ride for Gary Portelli. Experimentation (No8) has an awkward barrier, but plenty of talent and also Craig Williams to guide him.
The Winx combination of Waller and Bowman get together for French Emotion (No1) in Race 5 and from a handy barrier the pair will be competitive. She will be improved for her first-up run.
Richard Freedman is flying in resuming his training career after a long stint in the media and he can take Race 6, the Moonee Valley Gold Cup, with Auvray, whose lead up form has been outstanding. Kerrin McEvoy does the riding.
McEvoy will be a big chance again two races later on It's Somewhat (No1, R8). James Cummings will have this bloke fitter than when first up and the step up to 1800m from 1400m will be the key.
All the interest in the last, Race 10, will be if the former New Zealander Vin De Dance (No5) can force his way into the Victoria Derby with a big run. Take him in the multiples with Sanctioned (No2), Salsamour (No3) and Aloisia (No9).
At Randwick, Race 3 looks pretty tough and Tactical Advantage certainly doesn't have that as topweight. But he's smart, Glyn Schofield is a fabulous tactical rider and Joe Pride can train them up to perform fresh.