KEY POINTS:
On-pace runners and leaders might not be suited.
Horse racing is all about chance and you might have to take a risk on Pindy's awkward wide barrier draw at Ellerslie today.
From a decent gate Pindy (No3, R6) would be a hot favourite here.
Clearly taking the barrier
No 12 into account the TAB bookies were prepared to let you on yesterday at $3.50, which is generous, despite the risk.
The other slight risk is if the Ellerslie track plays close to how it did last week - and there are signs it might - then on-pace runners and leaders might not be ideally suited.
Pindy is that type of horse though to buck the patterns and at $3.50 he looks a good chance.
One of his rivals Buena Ventura (No4) went a beaut last week when fourth to Beau Casual under 58kg, making ground nicely late in the race. He drops to 56kg this time, which will help.
The key to him is wet ground. He is a dead-set mudder and if showers loosen and further soften the track overnight he will be favoured.
Conditions will also play a major hand in the result of the $55,000 Cornwall Handicap.
Last year's winner Twinkling (No4, R8) was not ideally suited to the somewhat holding conditions last Saturday and would probably need either improved footing or looser ground to feel comfortable.
The rise to 2200m from 1600m will be a big help though.
Another two mares Shining Light (No7) and Genuine Offer (No5) along with Stone Garden (No12) look strong chances.
It's difficult to delete from memory the class of horse Shining Light has been racing against.
She was narrowly, and unluckily, beaten in the Hawkes Bay Cup and was then narrowly defeated by unquestionably the best stayer of the late summer and autumn, Katy Keen.
There were excuses for her when she was beaten at Awapuni last start, one of them being the tempo of the race and another the fact she was dropping back to 1600m.
This suits her better and at the $9 on offer yesterday she might be the best risk.
Interesting, but tough race.
A bit easier might be supporting Stand Tall (No2, R3). He hasn't won in his last five starts, but he missed by first a head and a short neck, then by a neck from putting seven straight wins together from this time last year.
He is super talented, John Wheeler is confident he has overcome the bad barrier manners that beat him in his first start from his stable and his work this week has been very good.
Outside of bad luck he should win.
Matamata trainer Ken Kelso is having a great trot and there is no reason why Exilio (No5, R1) can't get punters off to a good start in the opener.
The well-bred mare has had only four starts and there was plenty to admire about the way she burst clear by three lengths to win at Matamata last start.
This is tougher, but she is capable of the step up. Mathias (No7) could be trifecta value.
If Irish Colleen (No1, R2) starts here in preference to the last she is right in the party.
She has 57kg topweight, but her recent runs have been in much stronger company and there has been nothing wrong with them. Luminoso (No2) looked good winning at Te Rapa last start.
Ruud Van Slaats (No6, R4) is a filly with enormous potential. She looked stylish winning her first two then turned in a remarkable effort fresh from a spell to be beaten a nose at Te Rapa when racing out of her class.
There are a couple of nice horses here, but if the track is suiting the speed horses she will go close.
Difficult to know how good Taranaki visitor Bohika (No8) might become.
He showed rare raw ability last campaign and looked a much more mentally mature horse scoring by a wide margin when recently resuming on his home track.
Don't leave him out.
Mallinson Road (No3) should be a fit horse after scoring on a tough track at Pukekohe last time.
Veloz (No2, R5) probably needs reasonable footing to show his best, but if he gets some grip on the track he should be hard to head off.
He covered a lot of extra ground from a wide gate at Te Rapa last start and has a much more friendly draw this time.
Majestic Diamond (No3) did not get much luck last start and could be a chance in what might turn out to be a trick race.
Race 9 isn't easy, so in those types of races you may as well look for some good value. Albaladejo (No5) might be it.
He's drawn wide, but the 2400m start at Ellerslie allows for a long run down the home straight to the first bend and it's possible to get a lucky slot. In a very tricky field, stablemates One For The Money (No14) and Work The Skirt (No12) are chances.
Zoe Quinn (No6, R10) has had her problems along the way, but her past two efforts have suggested a win is close.
That was a strong field she finished third in at Te Rapa last start. Visitor Tradewind (No4) could be value.
She resumed with a booming finish from the back to take third a couple of weeks back and has good form on rain-affected tracks.
At Wanganui Mick Curtis (No7, R4) could be a value bet.
He has never quite lived up to the promise he once showed, but he's a good horse when fresh and although the 1200m is a little short, he should be running into it.
In the last, Just Once (No2, R10) can make it two on end despite jumping up in class.
