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Home / Sport / Racing

Racing: Onwards and upwards for Probabeel

By Michael Guerin
NZ Herald·
27 Jan, 2019 04:00 PM4 mins to read

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Te Akau Racing boss David Ellis (left) with Jamie Richards at Karaka. Photo / Trish Dunell

Te Akau Racing boss David Ellis (left) with Jamie Richards at Karaka. Photo / Trish Dunell

Sales week at Karaka is full of meetings. Sometimes they are made up of two people, sometimes a dozen. Deals are done, shares sold and decisions made.

But a different type of meeting at Karaka this week could decide whether we see New Zealand's most exciting filly take on some of Australia's elite.

Because after she overcame the outside draw to obliterate her Karaka Million rivals at Ellerslie on Saturday night, Probabeel has opened that conversation up.

Most good New Zealand two-year-olds aren't strong or fast enough to head to the absolute best group races in Australia.

Melody Belle campaigned there two years ago but not in the hotbed of Sydney's autumn triple crown, she headed to Queensland and tasted success, as Sacred Elixir did the season before.

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Summer Passage was a recent rarity, a Kiwi-trained juvenile who almost pulled off rich Sydney spoils with a Sires' Produce second but few of our elite babies are deemed good enough.

Probabeel is good enough.

For all the talented juveniles to roll off the Te Akau production line in the last decade she might have the most x-factor.

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"She is special. We have had some good ones, but they just don't win like she did," says trainer Jamie Richards.

So now she has teased that she could be good enough to take on Aussie's best the sizeable team behind Probabeel will make a plan, probably if they can find a break in the action at Karaka this week.

That team will consist of Richards, Te Akau boss David Ellis, owners Brendan and Jo Lindsay and their bloodstock advisor at Cambridge Stud Henry Plumtree.

"First things first, we will give her a freshen up but the early signs are good, she knows she has had a race but she has pulled up sound," says Richards.

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Then things get more complicated. The Karaka Million may be our richest juvenile race but being for Karaka yearling sales horses only it is a Listed race, not group one. And for fillies who will one day become broodmares, group one success is the promised land.

The most obvious group one target is the Sistema Stakes at Ellerslie on March 9, which is also conveniently sponsored by the company the Lindsays built, which makes it tempting on so many levels.

The Sires' Produce at Awapuni on March 30 is also a logical target, especially as Probabeel would gobble up the 1400m but because of that Sydney also becomes a realistic option.

The Golden Slipper may always remain a mission impossible for New Zealand horses but their A$1 million Sires' Produce over 1400m at Randwick on April 6 or even the A$500,000 Champagne Stakes (1600m) at the same track two weeks later look realistic targets for Probabeel.

Of course it would be more convenient to stay closer to home and look for easier group one glory but the Lindsays have already sent Plumtree overseas looking for internationally-bred broodmares to restock Cambridge Stud.

So the opportunity to own a Savabeel filly with an Australian group one juvenile title on her resume could be very, very tempting for breeders who have their hearts set on improving every aspect of their business. "I must admit I haven't thought that far ahead and I suppose I don't need to until we have that meeting," says Richards.

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"But for sure, it sounds exciting." And if Probabeel, who still looks like she will be an even better three-year-old than she is a natural juvenile, does chase the pot of gold at the end of the Australian rainbow, Richards does of course have her trifectamates from Saturday night to take care of business locally.

Not only did Aotea Lad finish second and Yourdeel dead heat for third in the $1m thriller but earlier in the day Te Akau unleashed another potential group one juvenile when Equinox bolted in at Trentham, with the Sistema his main target.

Saturday was what every trainer dreams of after a month where Richards has had to cop the body blows of Melody Belle's two group one defeats and Te Akau Shark being ruled out for the autumn.

How did the 29-year-old trainer feel after a win that special headed home a trifecta that rare? "Relieved. Really happy, but relieved."

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