Platinum Witness has moved into favouritism for The Roses at Doomben today. Photo / Trish Dunell
If we get 75 per cent of the rain forecast for Auckland today it will pay to find the swimmers among the horses.
Old Drumble in Race 2 might be one of them. He loves the worst of conditions and with just 54kg on his back and Mickey Coleman he is well placed to once again put his hoof in the cash register. The favourite Illuminati looks the danger with her apprentice claim.
It might be a smart thing to take the short odds on the favourite Gesemi (No4) in the opening race. His record on heavy footing is superb and the horse he beat home last start won at Ruakaka on Wednesday. The saddle slipped on I'll'ava'alf (No2) last start and if Lion Red (No1) is going to get back to his best form it probably has to be here.
Ramarro (No6, R3) has only twice missed the money in 12 starts in the heavy stuff, which puts him right in the action here. He fought well behind Aaja Nachle at Te Rapa last week and will be fit on the quick back-up. Pan Dulce (No1) could surprise with a bold showing at only his second run back from a spell. Indications yesterday were that last week's winner Alleyoop (No3) would not run if the track got heavy.
If there is a change of mind there she would be the one to beat. Sierra Beel (No4) and Lucky Feather (No8) are others for the multiples.
The question in Race 4 will be whether speedster Twilight Dragon (No3) will be fit enough in his first start since August to get through testing ground. If he is close to peak they might struggle to pick him up. Flower Bomb (No1) will appreciate Brendan Hutton's 2kg allowance, coming down to a more manageable 57kg. Race 6 is tough. Long Harbour (No14) has finished powerfully in his three races to date and if he can handle the conditions must be hard to keep out. He has yet to race on anything worse than dead footing.
Postd'or (No3) will appreciate stepping up to 1600m.
The $50,000 Foal Stakes is tough given the likely conditions. We know Castamere (No1, R7) should have no issues with testing ground and pretty much the same can be said for Brighton (No3). The footing is going to be different to the loose, wet conditions High Class (No9) struck when she won in dashing style on debut at Avondale. The outside barrier draw will be a big assist for her. Castamere's ringcraft is going to be tough to get around, but High Class might just be a bit special.
Difficult to win first start out of maiden class, but Kings Daughter (No6, R8) will give it a decent shake. There was a bit to admire about her Avondale maiden victory. Aurora Lights (No5) probably won't mind the conditions.
Kitscheko (No1, R9) will be favourite and difficult to beat through fitness, but the wider barrier for Gotta Keeper (No4) appeals late in the programme when the fields are bound to be coming wide. Gotta Keeper's latest form has been better than it looks on paper.
The last is not easy, but the ability to run strongly in the closing stages will be critical at this time of day. Nothing (No4, R10) and Dragonkeeper (No1) are among those in that mode.
Wellington is forecast to have fine weather and that should make the track sticky and very tough work.
Northerners might have a good day. Wijema (No2, R5) landed some big bets when he won the last race at Te Aroha a couple of weeks ago. He seems able to get through the worst of the winter ground and that will probably be important, even though a looser, wetter track would probably suit better. Ethical (No8, R7) is probably an improver. Her form in two starts this prep has been ordinary, but she should be about ready to show her true winter form. She is very tough at best and that will count for plenty today.
Zorelli (No8, R8) was just topped off at Taranaki last start and is due another victory. Cassie Anne (No5) is another improver.
Mangaroa Flo Jo (No9, R9) won well at New Plymouth.
This track will not be as loose, but she has to be respected. Permesso (No4) could surprise at odds.
Cambridge 3-year-old Harry (R5 Doomben) might surprise the Australians in his debut across the Tasman. He is a bit underrated and on the up.
New Zealand fillies hold sway in the Group 2 Doomben Roses following the withdrawal of the early favourite Ballet Suite to concentrate on the Queensland Oaks.
That leaves NZ 1000 Guineas winner and NZ Oaks runner-up Platinum Witness as the $2.40 favourite to claim the first leg of the double famously completed by another Kiwi, Ethereal, in 2001 before her Caulfield-Melbourne Cups wins later that year.
The second elect is Bohemian Lily who is having her fourth start for Gai Waterhouse after doing her early racing for Lance Noble across the Tasman. She is at $3 with Exquisite Jewel the only other runner under double figures at $8.
The Sue Walsh-trained Exquisite Jewel ran fourth in the NZ Oaks in March in which Platinum Witness ran second to Savaria. She then beat Werther in a 2000m Group 3 race before running second to him in the Group 2 Championship Stakes (2100m) at Ellerslie.
The Waller-trained Winx, winner of last Saturday's Sunshine Coast Guineas, is the $2.25 favourite for the Queensland Oaks ahead of Ballet Suite at $7 with Bohemian Lily and Platinum Witness at $9. Exquisite Jewel is a $21 chance in the Oaks.
The last horse to complete the Roses-Oaks double was another New Zealander, the Graeme Rogerson-trained Scarlett Lady in 2011.
- Additional reporting: AAP