Qiji Phoenix has shown in each of his three winning visits to the races he can leave the barriers reasonably quickly, but that is against our 2-year-olds. There are likely to be half a dozen or more Australian opponents at least as fast or faster out of the gates.
Easing Qiji Phoenix to the back of the field and expecting him to round up the large bunch going wide around him would almost certainly be a bridge too far.
But if Innes moves him forward early there is a huge risk of being parked wide throughout - equally impossible.
"You can't win a race like this being four wide throughout," Forbes said. "It's a puzzler."
Despite the tough task Qiji Phoenix has been opened up as one of the second line of favouritism behind New Zealand filly Melody Belle, much better drawn at No 9, which will become No 7. She showed in winning the group one Manawatu Sires she can handle the wet tracks and the stable consider her to have gone to yet another level since then.
In that case she is definitely the horse to beat.
Melody Belle is currently at $4.40 favourite in front of the Chris Waller-trained Tangled ($6) and Godolphin's Malata on $7. Melody Belle will be ridden by the Autridge/Richards No 1 jockey Opie Bosson.
Bosson will have what must feel like an unusual re-match when he rides Counterattack for Chris Waller in the group one A$700,000 Kingsford-Smith Cup. Waller has astonishingly re-written the trainers' record book in just under 20 years since he transferred from Foxton to Australia. It was Bosson who rode the first of that plethora of winners.
"I rode Chris' first Australian winner [Party Belle] at Wyong in September 1998," Bosson said. Bosson was on Counterattack when second in the Doomben 10,000 last start.
One of their rivals today will be New Zealander Start Wondering, over whom there is a worry about track conditions. Questions have been asked about the state of the Eagle Farm surface since a multimillion-dollar rebuild. Recent rain has not been helpful, but the main question being asked is how loose will the surface prove since repair work following the last meeting three weeks ago.
The Te Akau stable is worried about how deep the track might be for Shocking Luck in the A$150,000 Grand Prix after considering it lucky to get away with a soft surface in clearly winning the Rough Habit Plate last start.
Chocante, for Cambridge trainer Stephen Marsh, is likely to be a big improver for the A$125,000 Premier's Cup (2200m). He finished a handy third in the Chairman's at Doomben in his Australian debut and would not need to improve much to play a major part from an ideal No 7 barrier. Top class local rider Jim Byrne retains the ride.
With 59kg clear topweight, Benzini is required to give Chocante 5kg and he has to come out of barrier No 13.
At Ellerslie today Megablast (No3, R2) looks probably the best bet.
Rain was forecast for overnight and for this morning and that would only enhance the Nigel Tiley-trained stayer, whose overall form entitles him to serious consideration.
Conditions make the Graeme Thomson Jewellers Sires Produce a bit of a gamble, but stylish last-start winner So Far Sokool (No4, R5) will be difficult to beat. Co-trainer Peter Williams believes the filly will manage the testing conditions.
Earlier, Fire Jet (No6, R3) is likely to show sharp improvement on his first-up effort. He does not lack ability.
