Two key factors are boosting Pukekohe trainer Richard Collett's hopes for a November Rain turnaround at Te Rapa tomorrow.
For one, she has freshened up a treat since her expensive Coupland's Bakeries Mile miss at Riccarton last month.
The second, and most important news for scalded punters is that, historically
speaking, at least it's through the summer weeks that she really shines.
Add in the fact that she is one of the best suited to the set-weight scale of the group two Cal Isuzu Stakes (1600m) and Collett expects to "get a bit" of the $85,000 purse. A follow-up run in the group one Zabeel Classic (2000m) at Ellerslie on Boxing Day could hinge on it.
"The 1600m is short of her best, but she's forward enough to find the line really well," said Collett.
He is still at a loss to accurately explain her ninth at Riccarton when second favourite with Melbourne-based Michael Walker flying in for the one ride.
"She just sweated up and became quite unsettled prior to the race.
"She was never going good enough to get into the open where she needs to be."
This year's Easter Handicap (1600m) runner-up, however, should still be the toughest for favourite Obsession to beat.
Collett's son Jason takes over the reins from sister Tasha, who is booked for Marton visitor Sharp Princess.
Cambridge trainer Frank Ritchie says the physical signs are encouraging that Obsession will handle the short back-up from her last-start third to We Can Say It Now in the Captain Cook Stakes (1600m).
She also has history on her side.
At the tail end of her last campaign she followed up a third in the NZ Breeders Stakes (1600m) at Te Aroha with an unlucky sixth in the Easter Handicap a week later, powering home late from the back.
"This race [Te Rapa] was always on the cards; more particularly the Captain Cook wasn't," said Ritchie.
"She dropped a few kilograms on the trip, as they do, but she's picked those up mostly as the week's gone on. I'm not big on backing up fillies but it's a nice race well within her range."
Ritchie also has the Zabeel Classic pencilled in for Obsession as a next-up summer assignment.
In-form rider Matthew Cameron, who has found the key to her recent form turnaround by riding her further back, is confident she will get the longer trip.
