Racing: New Zealand contingent in Australia unlikely to produce their best

Coventina Bay will be eyeing the rain on the Gold Coast today. Photo / Supplied

Trainer Robbie Patterson seems resigned to defeat for his outstanding mare Coventina Bay on the Gold Coast tomorrow, but that is still better than what most of his Kiwi counterparts can expect.

Coventina Bay faces not only superstar galloper Zaaki in the A$500,000 Hollindale Stakes but also the prospect of a heavy track with substantial rain forecast to hit the region today.

Taranaki trainer Patterson says that won't ruin Coventina Bay's chances, but even if she had perfect conditions she would struggle to beat Zaaki or Ayrton.

"I am pretty realistic about what we are up against," Patterson said.

"She is really well but maybe too well because they can get away on you a bit over here once the sun hits their backs.

"So I think she will improve with the run and even at her best she probably wouldn't beat Zaaki so third would be a good result for us."

Patterson says while a heavy track isn't ideal for Coventina Bay she will handle it better than some of her rivals and she looks set to enjoy it far more than many of the other New Zealand-trained horses at the meeting.

The biggest name of those is high-class three-year-old Sword Of State, who at first glance looks perfectly suited by the Gold Coast Guineas but may not even start on a heavy track.

Trainer Mark Walker flies to Queensland this morning and will walk the Gold Coast track this afternoon, probably needing his gumboots as 20mls of rain is forecast.

"I will see how the track is then ring the owners and we will make a decision on whether he starts," says Walker.

"Heavy won't really suit him but the weather forecast is the same for next week over there so I am not sure it is going to get any better."

Fellow Kiwi trainer Andrew Forsman feels the same with race rival Meritable but is likely to start regardless.

"We are setting him for the Fred Best Sprint in a couple of weeks and he needs a lead-up run because he hasn't raced in so long," says Forsman.

"So he might go around even if it is heavy."

Both New Zealand representatives in the Gold Coast Cup (race three) should handle the wet better than most, with Swords Drawn (1) and Soprano Supreme (10) both in the market for the 2400m event which has not come up strong.

"This whole trip is a bit of a throw at the stumps with Soprano Supreme," admits Walker. "We thought about the Rotorua Cup back here with her but thought it might be on too wet a track. It is dry over here and wet in Queensland but I don't think it will end her chances."

Promising juvenile Slipper Island also kicks off his Queensland campaign in race four tomorrow for Tony Pike.