Trainer Chris Gibbs is pinning his hopes on a series of rarities helping Danzdanzdance over a potentially disastrous draw in today's $200,000 Zabeel Classic at Ellerslie.
Fresh off a dazzling performance in the Captain Cook Stakes at Trentham, Danzdanzdance faces having to cover almost as much ground as that famousexplorer in the group one feature at today's iconic meeting.
She has drawn barrier 11, the outside of the field and made worse by the short run to the first bend from the Ellerslie 2000m start point. That and her natural racing pattern suggests Danzdanzdance's supporters could be in for an uncomfortable watch as she tails the field for much of the race.
Especially if the Zabeel follows the pattern of so many Ellerslie weight-for-age 2000m races in the last decade: jump, settle then dawdle before the leaders turn up the wick from the 600m leaving those back in the field with little chance.
Ellerslie only hold three weight-for-age 2000m races a year and that sit-sprint pattern is confirmed by those 30 races over the last decade having an average winning time of 2:4.1 — well below standard for the best horses in the country.
Regardless of today's track conditions that sort of relaxed tempo could leave Danzdanxdance facing a huge task from back in the field but while initially concerned by the draw co-trainer Gibbs got over it pretty quickly.
One reason is the presence of so many genuine group one horses in today's field who can race on the speed — Saint Emilion, Authentic Paddy, Jon Snow and even Nicoletta.
They can't all lead but any battle between particularly the first three of those could set up a rare true tempo for the 2000m.
"That is what I am hoping for and with a few horses like that in the race you'd hope they would get a long a bit," says Gibbs.
The other rarity in his favour could be the very real potential of a slow track today, not common at Ellerslie on Boxing Day but one which could negate better draws, especially later in the day.
"Barrier 11 didn't sound great early but with all the rain they have had there by late in the day it could be a good thing."
But there are two other rarities Gibbs puts most of his faith in today — the ability of Danzdanzdance and genius of jockey Opie Bosson.
"I honestly couldn't be happier with the horse. She has thrived since Trentham and her work has been spot on.
"And Opie is in great form so there won't be any instructions from me. I will just leg him up and let him do what he does."
A true tempo and wet track would also aid second favourite Lizzie L'Amour, with the last time she raced over 2000m weight-for-age under those condition seeing her destroy her rivals a Te Rapa in February.
Her trainers rate her the best of their four strong chances in the race but if the rain really comes the value could be Jon Snow, good enough to win an ATC Derby in the wet and one likely to race handy to the speed.
• Suggested bet: Wait for the track. If it holds together Danzdanzdance to win; if it gets worse than a Slow7 go Lizzie L'Amour with cover on Jon Snow.
