Racing: Many roads to Cup Dream

Baileys Dream is walking a tightrope.

And the conundrum facing punters tonight is working out exactly which direction on that tightrope he is going to take.

One direction is the winner's circle after tonight's Kumeu Pak 'N Save Founders Cup at Alexandra Park, from where he could springboard to New Zealand Cup favouritism.

Another option is a gallant placing tonight and a trip to the spelling paddock for a week before a radical New Zealand Cup build-up.

Trainer Steven Reid admits he doesn't know which way Baileys Dream will go.

The leggy pacer smashed Mi Muchacho in the Spring Cup two starts ago but raced below that form when beaten by comeback pacer Sly Flyin at Cambridge last Thursday.

He appeared to blow out in the final 100m of that race and while Reid would love to believe that, he thinks his stable star's problem is far more complex.

"I know it looked like he blew out but I am more inclined to think he was a touch over the top," suggests Reid.

"He is a very strange horse in that one race and even normal work can send him over the top very easily.

"I think that was the case last week so this week I have tried something different."

That means Baileys Dream will head into tonight's $30,000 race having had three days off in the past week and just a few days of light jogging.

Reid believes that will freshen him up and says a win would have him on target for the New Zealand Cup.

But if he cannot overcome his 10m handicap Reid may give him a week off and then head into the New Zealand Cup with just one trial and a private Addington workout to get him ready.

"He is just that sort of horse, a very hard one to work out," said Reid.

"I wouldn't be surprised if he came out and won this week but I still think he goes best when really fresh."

Baileys Dream was hardly disappointing last week as he held second after working hard early but Reid's theories will at least boost the confidence of his rivals tonight, if not the punters.

The Pukekohe trainer says punters shouldn't be surprised if driver Todd Mitchell adopts a more patient approach with Baileys Dream.

"He hasn't driven him with a sit that often but maybe this would be a good race to try that as it is only a small field."

While Baileys Dream will start a deserved favourite there are those in the race who will be more desperate than his connections and therefore possibly more willing to put their horse through the ringer tonight.

In that camp could be Badlands Bute, Waitfornoone and Mr Bojangles, all of whom would need to finish at least in the top three to keep any dream of a New Zealand Cup start alive.

Badlands Bute could get an economical trip close to the pace so will get his chance while Waitfornoone looks certain to be a big improver after her first-up pipe opener.

She is a true stayer who may need to be put in the race tonight and at her best would be hard to catch.

Mr Bojangles missed away badly at Cambridge last week but looks suited by tonight's condition and would not surprise by bouncing back.

Napoleon looks a trifecta hope off his 10m handicap while those who collected big on Sly Flyin last Thursday will be keen to back up on him again tonight, even from his 20m backmark.

He is a truly remarkable pacer and could repeat last Thursday's win but would need another fast beginning.

Reid opts for Washakie as the best winning chance of his red-hot stable tonight.

"He has to be hard to beat while I think Montecito, who is working well, and Flauting The Faith can also win with any luck."