Racing: Luck and a cool kid could work for Prized Gem

By MIKE DILLON

Murray Baker wants Prized Gem ridden for luck in today's A$2.5 million Caulfield Cup and he's got the right race.

Of all Australia's group one features, none is subject to the luck factor more than the Caulfield Cup.

The best horse on the day wins the Melbourne Cup every year.

The ninth-best horse can win the Caulfield Cup with the right luck.

Prized Gem comes out of the nightmare outside barrier of the 18 runners.

"There's no point in trying to ride for a position early - she could get caught out three and four wide," said Baker from Melbourne.

"The only thing we can do is drop back and ride for luck."

Ace Queensland apprentice Michael Rodd did exactly that in the Brisbane Cup in June and got the money on Prized Gem.

This kid has got cool to spare.

The barrier draw apart everything has gone right for Prized Gem in Australia since her dashing $500,000 Kelt Capital Stakes win at Hastings.

Forget that she was beaten out of sight by Lonhro, Sunline and company at weight-for-age, she could never have won that race and was prepping for this.

"I thought her fifth was a very good run," said Baker.

"They went like hell in that race and she came from last to pass a couple of runners late - it was the perfect run to fit her for this.

"She's done well, too, she's put on 5kg since that run."

It was 28 degrees and fine in Melbourne yesterday, but rain was forecast overnight and today.

That is great news for Baker. Prized Gem likes the fire out of the footing and a rain-affected track would assist her passage.

For a recent Australian group one winner she is in well at 52kg and at 20-1 represents good each-way value.

Northerly and Fields Of Omagh are going to be right in the race and visitors Beekeeper and Helene Vitality are real trifecta chances.

Topweight of 58kg makes it extremely difficult for Northerly in what will be a pressure race, but then he is Northerly.

When some are gasping at the 200m, that lion heart of his will still be propelling him forward.

In four: Northerly 1, Fields Of Omagh 2, Prized Gem 3, Beekeeper 4. Best value: Helene Vitality.

Tit For Taat (No1, R6) showed his class when he stretched Sunline at Hastings two starts back and he should show the same ability at Rotorua today. After drawing wide he was never a chance to win at Caulfield last start on his one-race trip to Australia. Forget that and remember him as a genuine group-rated performer, who will take plenty of beating at weight-for-age.

The interesting runner is Flying Class (No10).

She is having her first start since Sydney in the autumn and it would not pay to forget the blistering pace she showed against the best juveniles last season. The weight-for-age scale is meant to mean they all have an equal chance, but Flying Class' 48.5kg is a big help.

The $40,000 Centra Rotorua Challenge Plate (Race 8) looks more open. Bodie (No4) is in for a big season and with two runs behind him this campaign he should be fit enough to be a big hope. With four races this prep Rodin (No7) has a lot going for him. He has yet to race as far as today's 1900m, but ignore that. Armstrong (No3) and Real Vision (No2) make this a good punting contest. Any significant rain would assist Real Vision.

Ambush (No3, R3) might be a good way to build up the bank early in the day. She looked like a filly of talent last season and came from a fair way off them for her first-up third at Ellerslie last start. It took Miss Higgins (No14) a while to quit maidens, but she did it in style last start and can go on with it now.

Ambush's stablemate Tuscany Reign (No5, R10) took a long time to win his first race, but there was a lot to like about the way he got the money at Ellerslie last start. The barrier draw may not be a big help, but he can do it again.

It won't be easy for her, but Cinder Bella (No1, R8) can go away with a fresh-up Fayette Park Stakes win at Hawera. She comes into this so well at level weights and although there are some smart types engaged, it should come down to class. The trifecta could be tricky and straight out to win on Cinder Bella might be the best attack.

President Hughes ( No8, R10) went so badly at Hastings last start you simply have to forget the race. He is a talented stayer and could show it today.

Northerner Ego Fast (No2, R11) has been looking for the right race and seems to have found it. He looks a good way to end the day in New Zealand.