The hottest favourite all day at Ellerslie is Love Affair in the $100,000 Rich Hill Mile and she should justify her short odds. Her 54.5kg is the key to the race. When she cost punters a fortune being beaten into second in the Cal Isuzu Stakes she carried 57kg.
Evenmore important, the pattern of racing that day at Te Rapa beat Love Affair. Horses needed to be close to the inside and close to the pace and Love Affair was neither. She is all class and will go very close.
If it happened to rain Battle Time would come right into it. The Justice League, Charles Road and Watch This Space are chances.
• The result of today's $100,000 Jamieson Park Auckland Guineas will be tempo related.
This may not be a two horse race, but Demonetization and On The Rocks look the main participants.
You would struggle to find two 3-year-olds with more opposite racing styles - On The Rocks a free-goer who can lead and win and Demonetization, who is desperate to turn himself into a stayer.
The two met last time and On The Rocks had it to himself in front and had only to sprint down the home straight to win. In a sprint home Demonetization struggled to get his momentum properly built up, but was getting it together late and closed nicely into a handy third.
Demonetization ran home the last 600m a quarter of a second faster and with the distance going up 100m to 1600m, the result will be interesting. The certainty is that the faster they go the better Demonetization will perform. He looks a real Derby horse at this point.
Haussmann is classy and is right in contention. He came back off a two and a half month freshen in a R75 on this track last start and, finishing third, but he would have won with clear passage. The Great Southern has ability.
