KEY POINTS:
If you're looking to spice up the trifecta with Naturo in today's $275,000 1000 Guineas at Riccarton you probably need to look to include one or two outside the obvious dangers Princess Coup and Imananabaa.
Bad luck can beat any horse, but that and an off track are
probably the only two elements that can beat Naturo.
You cannot predict luck and the indications yesterday were that the Riccarton track was drying out, certainly to something close enough to saying it won't inconvenience the likes of Naturo, whose long stride is not suited when the track is moving.
She should win and Imananabaa and Princess Coup, on form, should fill the placings.
But the luck factor, and a couple of others, could work against that.
If one of the two threats ends up missing a placing, the trifecta could be value.
You should be safe standing Naturo out to win. One to consider for the trifecta is Imananabaa's stablemate Velvet And Satin.
Plenty will drop off her because she was beaten in maiden class at Te Rapa last start, but that would be a mistake.
Many horses, including Naturo, were unable to propel forward off the wet track that day.
Velvet And Satin looked to be bolting on the home turn, but when Cameron Lammas let her have her head, she struggled.
And, don't forget, it wasn't just an ordinary race.
The horse that beat her, A Tad Black, is also in this race.
The start before Velvet And Satin missed the start and still managed to finish second to Imananabaa.
The big talking point in racing this week is the inability of Australia to breed stayers for the Melbourne Cup. Everyone wants a sprinter. Looking at the weight scale for the Yesberg Insurance Services 1000 at Riccarton today, you'd have to question why you'd want a sprinter in New Zealand.
Clifton Prince (No1, R9) has done well as a natural speedster to have picked up $283,555 in stakemoney. He has 58kg topweight today and his stablemate Kays Awake (No6) has just arrived in the top grade and at 55kg she gets only a 3kg concession. Because of the lack of depth in many sprints, horses simply get too much weight too quickly.
On today's handicap you'd probably say Clifton Prince should beat his stablemate, but he's drawn No 14 and Kays Awake is an underrated, emerging horse.
She should get the better run and will be hard to keep out from the 150m.
The Dawn and Peter Williams training partnership is hard to beat on Riccarton carnival days. They have Wazawatsyn (No7, R2) in early on and in Race 4 they have The Raj (No2) and Al Farouk (No4).
Wazawatsyn showed last season she was a touch underrated. She has had her first-up race this preparation plus a barrier trial so should be ready for today.
The Raj is fresh, but has won in that state. The barrier trial he won recently should have him sharp for this. Michael Coleman takes the ride and perhaps that is the tip that we should instead look at Al Farouk, who will be ridden by stable jockey Jamie Bullard? Al Farouk has had the benefit of one lead-up race and that might prove crucial in the final 200m.
As you'd expect for $50,000, the Te Rapa Supa Centa Sprint at the northern meeting has drawn an interesting, if small, field.
Manten (No3, R8) at Te Rapa, going head-to-head with stablemates Devoted (No2) and Vaalu (No1) should be a beaut. Only about a neck separated Manten and Devoted in the big sprint at Rotorua last start.
The weight scale here is the same and they've drawn alongside at No1 and No2, so no tip there.
The best tip should be the racing pattern for the previous seven races.
If it's suiting leaders then Manten would be the choice, if on-pace horses are struggling then Devoted can sit just off them and fire home really strongly. Should be a good contest.
Race 5 at Te Rapa is interesting. Pulcinella (No7) has taken longer than expected to find form this campaign. She looked very good as a 3-year-old last season and two runs this preparation might have worked some improvement in her.
Give her one more chance on a track she has already won on and couple her up with the improving Speedalot (No9), who should be better for her first-up run on this track when second. She will be much better suited by the step up to 1400m.
Top rated filly Chant (No2, R6) turned in a first-up blinder when third to Imananabaa and Naturo on this track last start and with that pair down at Riccarton she should go close in the Super Liquor 3YO.
She looks a class above this field. Don't dismiss Whodat Cugat (No10). She was beaten in maiden class last start, but it was a lot better effort than just a maiden second.
Have a little on Pentempo (No9, R7) and keep following him.
The Myth (No10, R10) looked a bit stiff when sixth at Ellerslie last start. She is also worth following.
The one win we all want to see is Seachange in today's Emirates Stakes at Flemington.
But that's going to be difficult. She's drawn the outside gate of what will be 16 runners and for an on-pace runner that can be the kiss of death.
If Seachange is to win Gavin McKeon has to use all of the mare's natural gate speed and somehow slot her into a handy position on the speed, no more than one wide.
This field has far too many topliners to be covering extra ground.
A win would make up for the tragedy when she was beaten at Flemington last Saturday.
Another who needs some luck is Vanquished, who tries to put his nightmares behind him in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
Vanquished was unlucky behind Mandela in the Geelong Cup then copped a bad passage and was galloped on when finishing third in the Saab Quality last Saturday when needing a win to get into the Melbourne Cup.
With Kerrin McEvoy sidelined with a head injury Damien Oliver climbs aboard and he might be able to turn the horse's luck around.
