"Take this week, I've got his full brother Il Parata in the same race as Lemond and while he isn't anywhere near as good he can trot 3:28 off the front for 2700m," says Paynter.
"Which means Lemond might have to come three and four wide and trot 3:24 to win.
"I think he can do that and win at his best but but it's very hard to do. And clearly last week he wasn't at his best."
Paynter says that was because he tried Lemond in flip flop shoes, to reduce the concussion effect on his legs, particularly his off side fetlock.
"He had a few problems in that area last campaign and we thought the flip flops would help. He trialled well in them but he just couldn't get going last Friday so we have taken those off.
"He actually wears quite heavy metal shoes, his whole family can be like that and I put those back on him on Monday and he trotted a lot better today [yesterday]."
Lemond still faces a 30m handicap against handy but hardly frightening opposition so the best version of him could win.
"But I still think he might be just below his best fitness wise so it will be a big test.
"But he will definitely go better than last week."
The trot looks one of the trickier features on a night where the pacing group races will have a lot shorter favourites.
The market for the Woodlands Northern Derby will be released today, with Chase Auckland certain to be favourite.
