Racing: Ledecky's Girl hard to beat at Ellerslie

No, there'll be no resulting retirement plans formulated, but Ledecky's Girl should get the money again in Race 3 at Ellerslie this afternoon.

Winning four straight is never easy, but Ledecky's Girl has been well placed and comes into this race with 1.5kg more than she carried to an easy victory at Ellerslie two weeks ago.

There was more than 1.5kg in that win and with apprentice Alvin Ng now familiar with the mare it's going to take a good run to topple her. Noosa Blue's (No2) fresh-up victory here three weeks ago was almost exceptional and she looks the danger.

As results of the last month have shown, weight is important on these tracks and Hurricane Mickey (No6) comes into today on a very comfortable 53kg. He has been getting to the line strongly in recent races after dropping back early and he's going to be greatly suited by the small field this time. He's won four of his six career starts on heavy tracks. Difficult to know what happened to Appleton's Lass (No5) last week, but almost certainly it wasn't the jump from 1600m to 2000m. If it had been she might have struggled from the 300m, but she was labouring 800m out. Trainer Earl Harrison is prepared to back her up seven days later so there can't be much wrong. With the benefit of the doubt she is probably the main danger.

Race 4 is the best betting contest on the programme with changes everywhere. Foxhill (No1) was beaten favourite on his home track at Pukekohe last start, but he was beaten only a head and with limited racing behind him you can probably safely assume the race has done him some good. He is only one of many chances, but it's difficult to make a case against him. Indy Star (No11), Hula Belle (No10), Whispering Beauty (No2) and Saint Peter (No4) are all among the leading chances.

Salvatore (No5, R5) was cleaned up fitness-wise after a stone bruise by his barrier trial win on his home track at Cambridge last week. Although better at 1400m, this 1200m will be sufficient as a test to be close enough to 1400m. He deserves a win. If the rain arrives before the middle of the programme My Lips Ar Sealed (No1) is going to be even better suited by the conditions. He gets an apprentice allowance from his 58kg and, overall, this is an easier field than when he finished third behind Irish Colleen on this track last start. The remarkable veteran has been in the money 16 times at Ellerslie.

A value bet could be Copper Thief (No9, R6). He hasn't raced since February, but showed he was near fitness with a close second to talented Belle De Jeu at the Te Aroha barrier trials. He has also not raced on a rain-affected track similar to this, but it was heavy at Te Aroha and he is by Kashani and almost all of them are adept in the wet. This is a difficult race. Indian Sky (No10) looks on the improve and definitely one to consider.

Harvest The Gold (No1, R7) won a similar race on this track two starts back and carries the same 58kg this time. He is tough and rugged and his wet track form is impressive. He looks one of the bets of the day.

Caught Out (No3, R10) looks one of the best prospects on a tough day at Manawatu. He has had a couple of starts this preparation to bring him to full fitness and he doesn't mind the toughest conditions, which he should get at the end of this programme.

The Brown Bomber (No5, R8) is the real deal and the step up to 1400m shouldn't stand in his winning way. Difficult to get value in a single bet though and quinellas, even trifectas, with I Am Sam (No7) and Kuda Mahal (No2) could prove the way to go.