Racing: King's Rose ready to bloom

Annie Higgins has made steady improvement through the season. Photo / Getty Images

In weighing up the chances of King's Rose in tomorrow's $300,000 Wellfield Oaks at Trentham you need to go back to the high-class filly's last performance.

The fourth in the Lowland Stakes rates, on paper, as one of her career worst.

In fact, it was one of her career best.

The race was run in blinding rain on a track that was at least slow and was officially changed to that rating immediately afterwards.

King's Rose got back and did nothing until pulled out a few widths in the home straight. She was impossibly far away at that point and stormed down the outside to finish fourth, 2.3 lengths from the winner, Midnight Oil.

The stipendiary stewards' report states: "[King's Rose] travelled fairly in the going (according to rider Chris Johnson) however, when placed under pressure near the 600m, struggled to quicken in the deteriorating track conditions and failed to make any discernible ground until the latter stages."

The fact is Johnson rode a bad race.

It's impossible that any horse can go from literally making no ground on any runner at the 600m to running the fastest last 300m of the day simply because they've moved out a width or two.

The footing could not possibly have been that much better out there to create such a scenario. The finishing burst of King's Rose - in a sit-sprint race which makes it difficult to make ground - was nothing short of stunning.

She would have won in three or four more strides.

The career record of King's Rose shows she is not hopeless on rain-affected footing. In her 2-year-old debut she beat Jimmy Choux easily on a track rated slow that was downgraded to heavy immediately after her race. She took 1:02.6 for the 1000m. Jimmy Choux, as we know, is no slouch in the wet.

Trainer Jason Bridgman is clearly hoping for a decent surface even though rain was forecast for Wellington last night and this morning, clearing to fine.

"I wouldn't want to see it heavy, which it almost certainly won't be, but I won't be in a panic if it's dead to slow," he said yesterday.

If there is a slight query in Bridgman's mind it's the two-week back-up, which is shorter than King's Rose has been used to.

"We always had in our mind to space her races, but this is the autumn now and she's a more mature, more solid filly.

"She's between 12kg and 15kg heavier than she was at Christmas, so the maturity is certainly there.

"I haven't put the intensity into her work that we do when there is more space in her races and I'm happy with her progress. Her riders say she's right there."

Overall the Oaks has been something of a nightmare race for favourites, but if King's Rose can produce that remarkable sprint she has at the end of this 2400m, they will struggle to stay with her.

If Trentham is the graveyard of Oaks favourites, there are plenty waiting in the wings to pull the petals off King's Rose.

Midnight Oil has practically emerged suddenly as a filly of raw staying talent, Dating has shown rare ability, particularly when there is rain around, Annie Higgins and Insurgent have form in the best 3-year-old grades and Lisa Latta has a powerful coupling of Zennista and L'Amour.

Midnight Oil raced away with a minor Trentham event at the Cup meeting and was then luckless behind King's Rose at Te Rapa in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. Even though King's Rose was hardly given her chance in the Lowland Stakes at Hastings a couple of weeks ago, you can argue Midnight Oil was stylish in winning.

There is little doubt she will stretch herself out to accommodate tomorrow's 2400m and being by Keeper the prospect of the footing being at least somewhat rain-affected is in her favour. She is unbeaten in two starts on the slow.

Insurgent is one runner whose last performance can be forgotten. She worked early to get a position from a widish gate and was then pushed back and back in a muddling race and left with no answer from the back in a sprint home.

The 2400m should suit her grinding style and although she has yet to be tried on damp footing, she is by Ishiguru and most of them handle it.

Dating did not have a lot of luck behind King's Rose at Te Rapa after her runaway victory on this track in the Desert Gold Stakes. She is three from four on slow surfaces and with the footing certain to be easier than Te Rapa, she deserves respect.

As do Annie Higgins and the stablemates Zennista and L'Amour.

Both Latta runners enjoy the sting well and truly out of the track and both find the line strongly.

It would fit Lisa Latta's profile this season if she produced the winner tomorrow.

WELLFIELD OAKS

* Favourite King's Rose comes off an unplaced run, but was it really that bad?
* No, the high-class filly almost certainly should have won.
* The unknown factor of this group one race is the track conditions at Trentham.