Racing: Keyora strong for $1m Guineas

Katie Lee will have a tough task up against the colts. Photo / Dean Purcell

There are two magnificent formlines going into today's $1 million New Zealand 2000 Guineas at Riccarton.

They are Keyora winning the Wellington Guineas and filly Katie Lee taking out the Sarten Memorial at Te Rapa.

See either race in isolation and you say: "That's the 2000 Guineas winner."

Then you see the other image.

There's an old line that a good colt will always beat a good filly.

Not that a large number of fillies have attempted to beat the colts, but the fact that only three have managed to achieve it in 30 years suggests there is some truth in that line.

Clean Sweep was the last to do it in 2004 and before her Foxwood (1997) and Facing The Music (1993) were the only ones to win for the females. What's going to make it so hard for Katie Lee is that John Wheeler's Keyora is a dominant type of racehorse.

He is the sort that will muscle a rival out of business rather than beat it with simple class and that's probably the toughest type of horse for a filly to beat at this level.

In the Wellington Guineas Descarado, a rival again today, looked likely to head Keyora at the home straight. Once Keyora saw him coming he switched up a gear and powered to the finish.

The long home straight at Riccarton means that to win this race a horse is going to have to travel strongly to the finish from the 250m.

Keyora is that sort of horse.

Katie Lee had foot problems, but she has come back brilliantly and before her last-start Te Rapa victory the stable thought there was improvement in her out of that race.

She won with real style with a final 400m sprint that would win most races. If it's true she'll be improved, she is right in this race.

There is always room for an upset, but these two are so dominant it will be a surprise if one doesn't win.

Te Rapa today offers up some interesting races. They should be great betting contests.

Race 1 sees the debut of Everlasting, a General Nediym-Tristachine 2-year-old colt that has made a big impression winning at the trials. Cambridge trainer Frank Ritchie has been waiting for a decent track for him and gets one here. The dangers look like being another debut runner Macau (by Fastnet Rock) for Mark Walker and Patsy O'Reilly, who scored a gallant win first time to the races at Pukekohe last month.

Race 2 is the best betting option on the day. Benedict (No1) was just collared on the line by Mathias under 58kg at Ellerslie last time after being in front for a fair while in the home straight. With apprentice allowances this time there is a 5kg swing in favour of Benedict which, with just fair luck, should put Mathias out of business. But there is a stack of opposition.

La Etoile (No6) will be vastly improved by her two 1400m races this preparation and comes in here in better condition third up at 1600m. Her slight problem is the outside draw of the eight runners, but she is very smart. So is Justa Kinda Magic (No7) who has never been flash in the starting stalls and really bombed it last start, losing all chance as beaten favourite. Trainer Paul Duncan is worried, but is hopeful Justa Kinda Magic can correct this time. Then there is Back In Black (No5), who ran a shocker last start but is much better than that, and Sands Of Time (No4), who ran a beaut first time back from a spell last start. Go by the odds - if La Etoile is at good each way odds, stay with her.

Broadway Miss (No9, R3) was just far enough off them on the bend on a day when on-pace runners were advantaged last start. She rallied bravely late to be beaten only half a length and makes a fair bit of appeal here. Tipparary Miss (No14) is not far off a win.

It took a very smart one in Gendarme to beat Khemosabi (No1, R5) at Rotorua. Only a short neck separated them with the rest nowhere to be seen. With no Gendarme to worry about this time Khemosabi should be going close to winning if he doesn't cover too much extra ground from his awkward barrier draw. November Rain (No14) is talented and has drawn a good gate.

Trainer John Sargent has a big opinion of Passchendaele (No6, R6) as a coming staying star. She has won her only two starts this preparation at 1400m and 1600m and should be even better suited today by the jump to 2000m. There are a couple of tidy sorts to beat, but she will take some stopping. Fiorano (No5) got home strongly over 1600m here last start and is another who will like the extra distance. Heat Haze (No2) and Pure Reason (No3) are talented. Couple the four up in quinella and trifecta bets and you won't be far wrong.

The main sprint, Race 7, is a nightmare with several top class horses resuming for the season with question marks over their fitness. If you really like one go for it, but be careful and take notes.

The barrier draw makes Race 8 extremely difficult. Glaze (No6) and Wealth Princess (No14) are very smart, but both have drawn very wide at the tricky 1200m barrier. Glaze is capable of extreme speed and if she can cross the field quickly she can still win. Take a chance on her each way if the odds are reasonable and from the draw they might be.

Gendarme (No4, R9) was back and wide in the high-class field won by Katie Lee at Te Rapa last start and did remarkably well to get home strongly into fifth. On that run he should go close to winning this even though he has to face the older horses this time.