Racing: July terrible time for tipsters

Here's your choice - you can be a World War II tailgunner or a racing tipster in New Zealand in July.

Either way, chances are you'll get shot down.

On the basis that in a horse race something has to win, let's have a crack at today's meetings at Ellerslie and Trentham.

After days of rain and a meeting on the course yesterday, Ellerslie's surface can be guaranteed to do one thing - offer favours for those horses that can still perform when racing in wet cement.

It will be tough going. Any horse even slightly short of full fitness simply cannot win.

That won't be the case with Coup Invercargill (No 1, R1). He might have been at long odds when he scored a dashing win at Ellerslie last start, but there was an air of authority about the performance.

But this will not be easy because in engaging Cameron Lammas, the stable has chosen not to claim an allowance from the clear 57kg topweight. Kazarokin (No 6), a dual engagement, was stylish winning on debut.

A 3kg claim will be like platinum today. That amount coming off the back of Go Thenaki (No 1, R2) via in-form Chad Ormsby puts him right in the frame here. It puts him 2.5kg under Ben Sparta (No 2), who is also an acceptor for a later event. The best part is that Go Thenaki has had a full month to recover from his dashing first-up win at Ellerslie on June 6.

If he lines up here, Ben Sparta can add to the stakemoney he picked up at Avondale last weekend.

My Lips Are Sealed (No 5) has shown remarkable ability in the wet in his four wins and should be kept safe. The Vance stable is good at producing them to win after a spell.

If Kazarokin (No 2, R3) starts here in preference to the first race, he will also have a lot of appeal. He never looked like being headed in his winning debut and that type of grit is going to win races today.

On this surface wide barrier draws are not going to be the problem they sometimes are. Centalac (No 1, R4) has drawn towards the outside, but simply being balanced and managing the conditions will be far more important than which part of the track horses are on. Ryan Allwood will pull 4kg off his back and that will be like a truck-and-trailer in the final 200m.

Lady Lip (No 11) is close to a win and Text Message (No 5) is an interesting debut runner.

If Ben Sparta (No 1, R6) starts here in preference to race two he will be a fine prospect. He loves the tough, testing conditions of mid-winter, as he showed when getting the money at Avondale last week. Lady Of The House (No 5) is another who thrives in the wet. That was an improver's third from here last start and 1600m at Ellerslie is her trip.

The last, Race 8, is a good betting contest. The claim on Our Kitty (No 1) will be valuable, and in the trifecta mix you have Wise Man's Step (No 2), Slumber (No 3) and Daraldo (No 6). Box them up and you won't be far away.

Northern trainer Don Dwyer picked up a double with Dead Rabbits and Lazaros at Ellerslie and you wouldn't be against him repeating it in races four and 10.

It's a good field facing Dead Rabbits - Salt might be coming back to the form that we know is classy in winter.

The odds might not be flash, but Van Winkle will take plenty of topping off in race seven.