Racing: Jennifer Eccles has the draw to trouble Loire

Loire and Jennifer Eccles were both beaten by Showbeel in the Desert Gold Stakes. Photo / 123RF

Sometimes the stats don't tell the whole story.

Which might sum up the rivalry between Loire and Jennifer Eccles ahead of round five of their personal battle in the Ellis Fillies Classic at Te Rapa today.

If you go by the numbers in their four previous clashes then Loire should be favourite for today's $100,000 group two as she has beaten Jennifer Eccles home three times, finishing one spot ahead of her on each occasion.

But she isn't, with Jennifer Eccles the $2.50 market leader compared with Loire's $2.80.

The only time Jennifer Eccles has finished ahead of Loire was when the latter fibrillated in the Soliloquy at Ellerslie in October, so you could make the case Loire is just the better filly, even though they sit alongside each other atop of the Fillyof the Year table.

So their win-loss record may not be the real gauge of their respective abilities, with a series of poor draws meaning Jennifer Eccles has often settled well back and charged home, giving Loire a start.

That is not how Loire's trainer Tony Pike sees today's 2000m race unfolding.

"She is drawn a lot better at barrier one this week Jennifer Eccles so we might be giving her a start," admits Pike.

"I actually think my other horse Brahma Sunset will lead and she will go a cheeky race, she might be hard to catch even though she is still working it all out. But that could put Jennifer Eccles handy and she will be hard to catch."

Tempo could be crucial as Jennifer Eccles has a wicked sprint and will be incredibly hard to get past if she can unwind when jockey Jason Waddell wants her to whereas Loire might have to gallop a very quick last 600m if she is giving her co-favourite a start.

But Pike admits even though he would love to win today's race it is a step toward Loire's ultimate goals of the New Zealand Oaks, which could even be followed by an ATC Oaks campaign in Sydney. Stepping up to 2400m in March you could make the case Jennifer Eccles might be out of her comfort zone but today's distance could fit her perfectly.

Of course the pair were both beaten by Showbeel in the Desert Gold Stakes last start and her improvement has been so consistent she will take catching again, especially if she can get tactical advantage over the favourites again.

Meanwhile Pike accepts veteran sprinter Endless Drama will struggle to repeat his heroics of last spring in today's BCD Sprint.

Last August Endless Drama downed Te Akau Shark and Melody Belle in the Foxbridge Plate yet hasn't run a placing in four starts since.

The 1400m suits today but Pike says he needs give in the track, as he had for the Foxbridge, and Te Akau Shark, Avantage and his younger rivals may be too sharp for Endless Drama.

"The old fella is going as good as ever but this is a very good field and he will be doing a good job to run a place."

Pike rates Beauty Star a good chance in race three today.

Filly of the Year
Points heading into today's next leg at Te Rapa

16.5: Jennifer Eccles, Loire
12: Two Illicit
8: Lilikoi
7.5: Showbeel
6: Aretha
4: Bergamot
3.5: Travelling Light