Roger James vividly remembers his well-fancied Derby runner of last March, He's Remarkable, struggling hopelessly on the very heavy Ellerslie track when the race was run in heavy rain.
"With a round to go I felt sorry for the horse. Here was this little bloke trying so hard to cope with the conditions and he couldn't.
"I don't think I've ever seen a horse struggle in heavy ground as bad as he did that day.
"Matt Cameron told me later he had considered pulling him up with a round to go he was so hopeless in the conditions."
This year, James has the heavily-backed favourite Silent Achiever (No 15, R9) in the Derby.
Although Silent Achiever, winner of four of her six career starts and her past three straight, has won in slow conditions, James is far from convinced the classy filly is happy in the wet.
Horses of Silent Achiever's class can cope with unsuitable conditions in lesser races, but over 2400m in a Derby it is a different story.
That may prove too much for a filly who, although compact and neat, is not exceptionally strong.
In very bad wet ground, class and sprinting ability at the end of a race often runs second to brute strength.
Which is why James is delighted it might not have to come to that.
Thursday's drying conditions had Ellerslie near to perfect footing yesterday with only the degree of rain to come today to alter conditions.
In which case class may reign, and Silent Achiever has the field covered in that area.
Unless the track turns nasty, Silent Achiever remains the horse they have to beat.
Carrick (No 8) might be a big danger. His connections are confident he will manage an "off" track and with only four starts behind him he is the horse who is improving rapidly.
There was a fair bit to admire about the way he covered ground around the home corner before finishing off strongly into third to Silent Achiever at Ellerslie last start and he has a record of one start on a slow track for a win.
Zurella (No 16), well, the better the track conditions the better her chance. Two starts back she let her admirers down at Ellerslie, but it might have had more to do with the way her temperament worked her up that day than the footing.
She does not have the instant turn of foot that Silent Achiever has, but she is very dour and if it comes to a slog she and Jason Waddell could well lift this race.
The Rock 'n' Pop (1) team are not confident on a track that is rain affected.
There is a sense of timing about the way Rock 'n' Pop has emerged this preparation after being let down following his magnificent 2000 Guineas victory at Riccarton in November.
This preparation has been identical: "This the fourth run back, just like the 2000 Guineas," says trainer Jason Bridgman.
The stable tried Roc 'n' Pop for staying potential in the group one Darci Brahma at Te Rapa last start and in a race where that did not suit the pattern, he looked very smart finishing strongly into third.
He needs only the conditions to be decent to be right in contention.
As a winner in slow ground, Shuka (No 2) has to rate and then there will be plenty looking for roughies to perhaps run into a first-four placing to boost the odds.
One of those could be Travolta (No 2), who impressed finishing fourth to Silent Achiever last start after having to come very wide on the home bend.
He finished with a real grinding effort as though the jump from 2100m to 2400m would be perfect.
Then there is Angelology (No 7), who has yet to race against the very best, but who has looked good stringing wins together.
Without having any idea how the track will play makes a punting column an exercise in caution.
If it's wet, The Jungle Boy, (No 3, R3) might be value even against the likes of Shez Sinsational (No 2) and Titch (No 2) in the Nathans Memorial. He has been running terrific races in strong staying company and loves the wet. The weight concession he receives from the other pair makes him a sound prospect.
Platinum Dancer (No 5, R5) will definitely manage any reasonable amount of rain and with Lisa Latta's team firing everywhere makes a lot of each-way appeal. The 2kg Zankuro (No 1) gets off his back will be useful in the finish and his current form pushes him into contention.
Off The Top (No 1, R6) has to carry his full 59kg, but he has ability, can manage rain and will be improved for his first-up run last start. Have No Mercy (No 5) failed as favourite at Matamata last start, but it was his first race in a month and perhaps he can improve on that. He has performed on a slow surface.
Justanexcuse (No 3, R7) will love the rain. His overall form is excellent and with 56kg he sits nicely in this line-up. Durham Town (No 1), well, he has more class than any of these, but there has to be doubt about his ability to cope if the track gets bad. Despite that he's the horse everyone wants to see win.
On the basis that Allanah (No 10, R10) is by Zenno Rob Roy and most of them are supposed to handle the wet, we'll tip the grey mare who is still on the way up.
The draw is awkward on paper, but if it rains it might be where you need to be in the last race. Dreamcatcher (No 14) has been backed and beaten, but this might be her chance.
