Racing: How to tackle Karaka Millions night - Michael Guerin

Alabama Lass will run in race six at Ellerslie on Saturday. Photo / Race Images

THREE KEY FACTS

• Karaka Millions night at Ellerslie is one of the biggest meetings on the New Zealand racing calendar
• The first of a six-race schedule jumps at 4:38pm
• The two key races on the card are the Karaka Millions 2YO and 3YO, which are races four and five

Michael Guerin shares his suggested plays ahead of Karaka Millions night at Ellerslie on Saturday.

Race one

Most summer track suits those “up and in” early in the programme and the horse with the draw and speed to control the race is Poetic Champion.

Suggested bet: Poetic Champion (No 2) to win.

Race two

It’s a tricky race because Orchestral is clearly the best horse and, at its peak, would win but there are too many question marks to take the $2.40 on offer here.

Bourbon Empress is on the improve but also short at $4 for a horse who might encounter traffic.

Mary Shan is drawn to do no work and could be the bolter.

Suggested bet: Mary Shan (No 12) to place at $2.50 is good money and you can even double down for a top-four finish at $1.80.

Race three

This is an ideal race for those who like to halve their risk.

The only two Group One winners are Berclare and Skew Wiff, and they get the right draws for them and the firm track they enjoy over their favoured 1400m distance.

Suggested bet: Split bet. Back both Skew Wiff (No 2 - more) and Belclare (No 1) to win.

Race four

For Karaka Millions, the best form is Ellerslie form and the strongest two Ellerslie wins belong to To Bravery Born and Two Sweet.

To Bravery Born fits the profile of a Karaka Millions 2YO winner perfectly whereas Too Sweet ($4.80) is too short considering she has to cross the field and still hold the Te Akau runners at bay.

Suggested bet: To Bravery Born (No 3) to win.

Race five

If you are willing to forgive Damask Rose one failure last start, then on her previous form she is the one to beat. Having the blinkers on might be the key and it’s hard to make a winning case for many of the rest - with Dealt With’s ceiling the total unknown.

Suggested bet: Damask Rose (No 10) at $4 is still the best value in a race with plenty of questions.

Alabama Lass will run in race six at Ellerslie on Saturday. Photo / Race Images

Race six

The two fillies Alabama Lass and Captured By Love get in so well with their light weights against rivals who were mostly spanked in the Telegraph.

Crocetti is the best hope of the older horses.

Suggested bet: Alabama Lass (No 12) was stunning in her trial so it will take something special to beat her with 52kgs.

Michael Guerin wrote his first nationally published racing articles while still in school and started writing about horse racing and the gambling industry for the Herald as a 20-year-old in 1990. He became the Herald’s Racing Editor in 1995 and covers the world’s biggest horse racing carnivals.