Racing: History may repeat in Derby

Flash Consider a bit of history before you write Sir Lincoln off in tonight's $500,000 Woodlands Derby because of his disastrous build-up.

The flashy colt won the strongest 3-year-old race of the season so far after almost exactly the same lead-in just a few months ago.

That is trainer Ray Green's one comforting thought when he considers the enormity of the task facing Sir Lincoln at Alexandra Park.

The glamour colt will have to overcome a series of mishaps in the past week, the worst of which forced him to miss his final lead-up race last Friday.

Sir Lincoln developed colic early last Friday morning, forcing him out of the race and putting his entire Derby challenge in jeopardy.

But he has recovered well enough to take his place, albeit with his fitness, so crucial in a painstaking 2700m, now under question.

His setback means he has not raced since his brave second in the Victoria Derby five weeks ago and he has barely been worked at speed in the past two weeks.

To make matters worse, he then drew wide on the second line for the Derby, while favourite Russley Rascal drew ideally off the front.

If that all sounds too bad to be true, Green isn't getting too down about it because he has been here before.

In fact, Sir Lincoln's preparation mirrors his lead-up to the Sires' Stakes he won so brilliantly at Addington in November.

Back then he had physical problems leading into the race which meant he was hardly worked, then drew the second line, factors which saw him balloon out to over 20-1.

"If people knew how little work he did because he was off colour before the Sires' Stakes they would be stunned," said Green.

"He is just one of those horses who doesn't need a lot of work and keeps himself very fit.

"Sure, he may not be going into this race at his peak but I think his class can take him a long way.

"So I still think he can win it."

Green said Sir Lincoln had fully recovered from his setback by Monday morning but punters will take more convincing and he is certain to start longer tonight than the paltry $4 offered by the TAB this week.

Especially with last Friday's stunning heat winner Russley Rascal drawing ideally at four tonight.

The favourite's cause has been aided further by other big-name players, Courage To Rule and Four Starzzz Flash, also drawing poorly.

While he is not a natural leader, so isn't likely to dominate from barrier four, Russley Rascal now has all the options as he tries to give driver Blair Orange his first Derby victory.

His heat win last week showed he can race tough and his speed has never been in doubt so he is clearly the horse to beat tonight.

Four Starzzz Flash was also an outstanding winner of his heat after sitting parked but the times were slower.

Still, he is a grinding stayer and will be ideally suited by the 2700m.

So, too, will Courage To Rule. He had done little in the way of fast work between winning the Victoria Derby on February 6 and last Friday's second to Russley Rascal.

While his second-line draw negates his gate speed he can settle for driver Peter Ferguson and he has enough respect now to get handy without risking being parked wide.

Devil Dodger and Hip Hop Anvil appeal as the other trifecta chances, while last Friday's Oaks winner Secret Potion was outstanding, winning in a good time last Friday.

GUERIN'S TIPS
* Russley Rascal
* Courage To Rule
* Four Starzzz