KEY POINTS:
Most of the expected crowd of 30,000 at Moonee Valley today were not born the last time a 3-year-old filly won the Cox Plate.
A statistic like that has to tell you something.
Iron filly Surround became the one of her age to win a Cox Plate in
1976.
Yet 32 years later throngs of Australian punters are lining up to back champion Sydney filly Samantha Miss to defy the history books.
To cement her place in history Samantha Miss has to topple New Zealand's outstanding mare Princess Coup.
Princess Coup plus history - that's a tough double to overcome.
Surround was certainly tough and she was trained by a man who ensured his horses became even tougher than when they started out, the late Geoff Murphy.
Another significant factor is that the Cox Plate - referred to as the weight-for-age championship of the Southern Hemisphere - was not always the race it is today.
It used to be simply a lead-up race to the Melbourne Cup and the immediate two winners before Surround were Kiwi stayers Fury's Order and Battle Heights, both on their way to the Cup.
Winners that followed Surround were Family Of Man, So Called, the mighty Dulcify and Kingston Town (three successive years), so you can argue that Surround's year was the Cox Plate turning point and that the filly, who incidentally carried half a kilo less than the 47.5kg Samantha Miss has today, was given an easier task than had she been facing a modern day Cox Plate.
That said, this is a below-par field except for the two favourites.
Two years ago Miss Finland became the first filly to try for the Cox Plate since Slight Chance finished third to Super Impose and Kinjite in 1992. It's been well publicised that Miss Finland had a rougher passage than a stock car - bouncing off and between horses for much of the 2040m before finishing midfield.
Surround and Slight Chance are the only fillies to make it into the placings, the finishing position of the other 10 that have tried being 10th, 7th, 10th, 10th, 6th, 11th, 8th, 9th, 5th and 10th.
Princess Coup's trainer Mark Walker, never one to pre-empt a victory, takes some comfort from the stats facing his main rival today.
"History doesn't normally throw up too many surprises in big races," he says.
"Samantha Miss could be the exception to the rule, we'll have to wait and see."
You get the impression Samantha Miss is a better chance than many of the fillies that have contested the Cox Plate in the past.
But the weight advantage - almost 10kg on Princess Coup - is not enough on its own. For a filly to win she needs class and toughness. Samantha Miss has both.
She is likely to be a couple of lengths ahead of Princess Coup when the sprint comes on between the 700m and the 600m, and at that point a weight difference of that amount has the potential to be deadly.
But Mark Walker has said all the way through he couldn't be happier with Princess Coup and is adamant the mare is better for her Kelt Capital Stakes winning run.
If that's true and Princess Coup comes around the camber on the Moonee Valley home bend as well as expected, her relentless drive could prove too much for the Sydney filly.
The $4 on offer by some Australian bookmakers yesterday still looks great value.
If the filly fails completely and something goes amiss with Princess Coup, the race opens up for the likes of C'est La Guerre and Zipping, both staying types who will be finishing the race off strongly.
There was money for both horses in Melbourne yesterday.
Punters were also forgiving of Maldivian, who has been racing lengths and lengths below the form he showed last spring when he was Caulfield cup favourite before being scratched at the barrier.
He has been turning into the straight in his races and putting his head up like a horse in need of blinkers and, guess what, he's wearing them for the first time this preparation today.
Go the Princess.
Favoured age:
* Four-year-olds have the best record of any age group in the Cox Plate, winning on 25 occasions. Other age groups: 3-y-o: 18; 5-y-o: 22; 6-y-o: 13; 7-y-o: 6. Super Impose (1992) is the only 8-year-old to have won and Fields Of Omagh (2006) the only 9-year-old to win.
* Phar Lap was the shortest-priced winner of the race in 1931, starting at 1-14.
