Racing: Gypsy Moth looks good despite draw

By MIKE DILLON

Ridiculously wide barrier draw and all, Gypsy Moth looks a pretty good prospect to win at Tauranga today.

And that is whether or not the predicted rain arrives.

The Takanini mare looked good finishing second by a long neck to smart stayer Oliverdance under 58kg at Awapuni last start, and looks better placed here with 55kg.

If you take the view Oliverdance is the danger again, and that's not difficult, you have to like Gypsy Moth. Oliverdance carried 56.5kg at Awapuni and is worse off by 1.5kg this time, a statistic which will become very important with the likelihood of rain. Gypsy Moth is already a winner at Tauranga on a heavy track. For trifectas, don't discount Somerset Beau because it was a hurdle race he won last start. That rugged experience will stick by him at the end of what will be a tough race.

The more rain, the greater the chance of Watch Officer (No1, R7) being a real threat in the $40,000 Carter Holt Kiwifruit Cup. He loves loose, wet winter tracks and while 58kg is never easy, in real terms it represents only 4.5kg more than the lowest-weighted horses.

The problem for Watch Officer is last week's Ellerslie winner Likely Story (No9). He is an emerging stayer who comes in on 54.5kg and showed last week he is right at the top of his form with no problems on heavy footing. Lately (No3) and Just There (No5) are trifecta chances.

Honor Bound (No3, R4) has made it hard for herself lately by getting too far back in the first half of her races. Tauranga may help her overcome the disadvantage because when the footing is heavy it suits swoopers, who seem to get to the leaders pretty quickly from the back. There was a lot to like about the way Honor Bound finished off her last 75m when second to Orbiting at Ellerslie last start after looking to be in an impossible position at the back of the field on the home turn. This is a bit better field than that, but she has plenty of ability. Paolino (No5) is a smart and improving filly who looked good clocking a close second at Ellerslie last week. The 4.5kg emerging star Samantha Pratt will take off Paolino's back will be a major influence. Few 4.5kg claimers ride with the assurance and balance of Pratt. Blue Dude (No6) should be improved by his first-up close third at Ellerslie.

Two smart fillies in race two, Arousing (No2) and Ballina Kate (No1). The Matamata pair stand out in a Class 1 race, with Arousing probably looking to have the edge through racing and winning at Paeroa last month. But Ballina Kate has plenty of talent and don't be surprised if she is right in it with 100m to run.

If you had your money on Millennium (No3, R9) when he was a beaten favourite at Te Aroha last start, give him another chance today. He is better than he showed that day and has only to race up to something like his best to be very hard to beat. Don't forget he won the Guineas at Ellerslie in the spring at only his second race start. Tsar Omar (No2) showed rare heart to keep going and win under 58kg at Ellerslie last week and a similar effort would put him right in the frame here.

Taranaki visitor Fulla Vink (No1, R3) is worth forgiving for being beaten at Foxton last start. She got too far back from a wide barrier. This is likely to be a different type of race and she can bounce back from an inside gate. Dance Class (No3) is a bit better than her recent form shows.

* Tips for Tauranga today:

1: SKYBABY, Lucky Streak, Rapt'n Victory

2: AROUSING, Ballina Kate, Latin Class

3: FULLA VINK, Dance Class, Is That So

4: HONOR BOUND, Paolino, Blue Dude

5: WARTORTLE, Karaka Angus, Sharif

6: ZABEELS ANGEL, Oakley, Arduous

7: LIKELY STORY, Watch Officer, Lately

8: GYPSY MOTH, Oliverdance, Charlie Chase

9: MILLENNIUM, Tsar Omar, Ebony Boy

10: MASERATI, Hot Streak, Hakkinen


Best bet, Gypsy Moth, best quinella, R8.