But before that, the Waikato Guineas had become a most reliable guide to finding the Avondale Guineas winner.
Rangipo won the Waikato Guineas in 2016 before winning the Avondale Guineas and New Zealand Derby, just as Mongolian Khan and Puccini had done the previous two years and Silent Achiever had done in 2012.
But to show how much has changed, just one Waikato Guineas runner is even contesting today's Avondale Guineas, likely a reaction to the shorter than usual gap between races of just a week, rather than the standard two weeks from previous years. That's The Chosen One, who finished fourth at Te Rapa last Saturday. In contrast, Surely Sacred, Prise De Fer, Sir Nate, In A Twinkling and Swords Drawn all come out of last month's Karaka Million 3yo Classic.
It makes finding this year's winner a little trickier but the upside is that it should make little difference to finding the winner of the group one $1 million New Zealand Derby (2400m) at Ellerslie on March 2.
Since the Avondale Guineas was moved from its December date to replace the group two Championship Stakes as the main Derby leadup in 2011, all but one winner of the Derby has come through the Avondale Guineas — Jimmy Choux in 2011.
And of those remaining seven Derby winners, five were successful in the Avondale Guineas the start prior — Silent Achiever, Puccini, Mongolian Khan, Rangipo and Gingernuts. The others, Habibi and Vin De Dance, both finished third.
So while that, theoretically, should be the Derby sorted, we've still got to nail the Avondale Guineas.
Cutadeel has been Derby favourite for the past couple of months and will shoot for four straight wins, having comfortably accounted for older rivals in Rating 72 company at Pukekohe last month.
He's proven over 2100m and hails from the Derby stable of Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman; think Dundeel, Mongolian Khan, Jon Snow, Vin De Dance in the last few years alone. They will also saddle The Chosen One.
Surely Sacred fits the mould of an eye-catching Karaka Million 3yo Classic runner that gave us last year's quinella and he had brilliantly won the group two Auckland Guineas (1600m) at Ellerslie prior.
Vernanme looks a great Derby prospect but this might be more a run to get him cherry ripe rather than a focus race, though as our history lesson shows, Derby winners in recent years have more often than not been Avondale Guineas winners too.
Pace will be an important factor in the outcome, with The Chosen One, Roll The Dice, Prise De Fer and Sir Nate all likely to be somewhere near the speed and if it is sedately run early, those on speed come right into contention.
Last year, the first four came from seventh, 13th, fourth and 14th in running in a truly-run affair, whereas Gingernuts produced a superb Derby trial in this race two years ago coming from back and wide when the next five home were second, third, in front, fourth and sixth in running.
The group two Coca-Cola Avondale Cup is an even harder race, with Waverley visitor Glory Days weighted to run a big race against this season's northern Cups yardsticks Mongolian Marshal and Five To Midnight.
Ever Loyal looks an attractive proposition in the Dunstan Feeds 1200, race five, while Tightlign should make last Saturday's luckless run a bad memory when he contests race four as one of the bets of the weekend.
