Some serious manoeuvring might be necessary next year to save the time-honoured Avondale Guineas.
Although today's Guineas includes two smart 3-year-olds, Crusoe and Pulcinella, the race looks to have suffered with the replacement of the Mercedes Derby at Ellerslie from Boxing Day to March.
Traditionally the Avondale Guineas has proveda vital lead-up to the Derby at Ellerslie.
Since 1980 those who have taken the Avondale Guineas and gone on to win the Derby are Ring The Bell, I'm Henry, Jolly Jake, Tidal Light, The Phantom Chance, Zonda, Leica Guv and St Reims - a magical list.
When the Auckland Racing Club decided to relocate the Derby and replace it on Boxing Day with a 2000m Great Northern Guineas, to fit in the Avondale Jockey Club dropped the distance of its Avondale Guineas from 2000m to 1600m.
The Avondale Guineas should still have been a perfect Boxing Day lead-up, but what has changed is where it fits in on the weekly calendar approaching holiday racing.
The other major factor is a $100,000 bonus New Zealand Bloodstock Insurance has introduced this year for the winner of a three-race series at Ellerslie, culminating with the $150,000 Great Northern Guineas.
With Ellerslie providing the perfect lead-up of suitable races two weeks apart for the first two legs of the triple crown, the Avondale Guineas was always going to suffer.
Clearly the connections of most of the topline 3-year-olds were going to run in the first leg of the ARC series in an attempt to snag the $100,000 bonus.
True, only one can now win that bonus - Black Panther - but once the 3-year-olds enter that two-week, two-week cycle, they are on the wrong leg to include the Avondale Guineas.
To go to Avondale you either need a horse who will not then race again until the Great Northern Guineas - Crusoe might be a possible for that - or a gross type that can handle two tough races a week apart in the lead-up to Boxing Day.
The Avondale Guineas is too important to lose - there are insufficient top races for our good horses - and some strategic planning is needed for its healthy survival.
