It's a waste of time absorbing the weather forecast.
Have you noticed lately - past two or three years - how TV overstates rain?
Or is it just us?
No, it's not.
Unless it poured in Auckland last night and again today - which means the forecasters will have beenright one out of three - the footing for today's $100,000 West Brook Winery Avondale Cup will be perfect.
Predicted persistent rain Monday and yesterday hasn't eventuated.
"The footing is a good 2," said AJC club manager John Craig of the Avondale track last night.
Which makes us think the form is going to be straight down the middle.
Ginga Dude may then be a massive chance to turn around his luckless sixth in the Counties Cup on November 21.
Rider Andrew Calder was damned if he did and damned if he didn't go forward from gate No 13 in the race. He decided to go back early to avoid the obvious problem of covering too much extra ground - five and six wide - around the first bend.
"There wasn't much I could do," said Calder, summing up the race.
Ginga Dude got home late to finish sixth, 3.4 lengths from winner Boundless in the Counties Cup.
Calder is today riding Counties Cup runner-up Fiorano, prepared by Roger James, for whom he is stable jockey.
The 51kg was too light for Calder in the Counties Cup and in this he replaces Samantha Collett at the 52kg.
Michael Walker rides Ginga Dude and he should be the one to beat.
Ginga Dude is best on firm footing, but is one of those who won't be disadvantaged if the forecasters are correct about at least some rain.
Boundless is a terrific mare. She showed that plenty of times as a 3-year-old and again when a narrow winner of the Counties Cup.
The 57.5kg is as much as you like to see mares carry in races like this, but she has earned it and didn't flinch under her weight last time.
Solid Billing showed by his third to Boundless that open company would hold few terrors. He is a place hope.
