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Home / Sport / Racing

Racing: Forecast favours Volpe Veloce

By Mike Dillon
NZ Herald·
31 Dec, 2017 04:00 PM5 mins to read

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Jake Bayliss and Volpe Veloce (4) get up to beat Heroic Valour and Melody Belle at Ellerslie last month. Photo / Trish Dunell

Jake Bayliss and Volpe Veloce (4) get up to beat Heroic Valour and Melody Belle at Ellerslie last month. Photo / Trish Dunell

Hey, racing might just be about to cop a break.

If you looked at Saturday's weather forecast for Auckland today - yes, when you're tipping horses you have to - it clearly said rain for today, starting early morning.

Surely not another affected Boxing Day track at Ellerslie, when, if you backed multiple winners you were taking your lucky numbers or you were given the wrong tickets.

But wait, there's more, yesterday's updated prediction for Auckland saw the rain break north and south of the city late morning before it struck landfall and rain not kicking in until just on dark.

Give those people at the weather bureau an ice cream each if that's accurate because rain would decimate what is certainly the best day's racing we've seen in New Zealand in at least the last 12 months.

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Who would want the job of track manager at any time of year, but particularly right now. With a changing forecast do you irrigate the track, or not. If you don't irrigate and rain arrives on a very firm surface, we all leave the skating rink behind and go home after the first race. The ARC's executive general manager of Racing and Operations Craig Baker says the club now has a strict policy. "It is to start the day with a track rating of good 3. We have been irrigating to get the desired result because at this time of year a track can dry out a huge amount during a raceday. We put 10mm on early this morning [yesterday] and the track here at late morning is a dead 4. It will be a good 3 by tonight and also by start time tomorrow."

The decent syndicate of owners behind Volpe Veloce will be pleased about that possibility leading up to her attack on the $200,000 Sistema Railway Stakes. The high class mare has won in heavy footing early in her career, but class got her there and she prefers it firm.

She showed that when she came back in fresh condition a few weeks ago at Ellerslie and with Melbourne jockey Jake Bayliss guiding her beautifully, she bounded up to just grab Heroic Valour in the last bound with Melody Belle a close third.

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Bayliss will have to be every bit as good again with Volpe Veloce drawn awkwardly at No12 and while that is not racing suicide in Railways, luck is required. With just 54kg to carry she is well placed if she gets even luck.

If the rain did come Melody Belle would just about come into favouritism.

Melody Belle has a magnificent pedigree and the stock of her sire Commands handle wet tracks beautifully. Don't forget what she did to the opposition on wet tracks in the Manawatu Sires Produce and the Sires Produce in Brisbane, but also remember she won the Karaka Million a year ago on a good track. She comes in here beautifully on 52.5kg from the No 2 barrier.

Co-trainer Stephen Autridge says Melody Belle and Heroic Valour have gone the right way since their close placings to Volpe Veloce last start. "We were very happy where we are with both horses. Melody Belle is pretty good and she's got the gun draw. I thought Heroic Valour's work on Tuesday morning was the best I've seen from him."

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Last year's winner, Start Wondering, came into the race on that occasion with a luxury 55.5kg, but this time has to carry clear topweight of 59kg. He is a brave warrior and will give it his best shot, with success not being a massive surprise, but the main dangers are well down in the weights. Don't leave him out of multiple ventures though. Fully Funded, Packing Eagle and Ferrando are all there with on-pace chances.

• The first feature today - one of six Group races - is the $70,000 Barneswood Farm Eclipse Stakes for the juveniles. We have some outstanding types among the 2-year-olds and by season's end any number of them will attain star status. One will be Al Hasa, a magnificent Exceed And Excel colt who made the opposition look second rate when he bolted clear to win Riccarton's Welcome Stakes by six lengths.

There are only six opponents, but there is real class among them. Nigel Tiley's filly Melt could not have been a more impressive winning on debut on her home track at Pukekohe. She's A Thief has won her two starts left-handed at Te Rapa, simply by being too fast for the others. This, particularly being right-handed, will be tougher for her.

Sir Nate, from the family of Railway winner Alynda, has won his two starts with sheer grit. The opposition this time is much tougher.

The interesting runner is Beastmode, who turned in a remarkable performance to finish a close third here on Boxing Day. He simply flew along the rails late and is a youngster of high promise.

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