KEY POINTS:
There are days when Paul Lally is unsure how he feels.
As the TAB's chief bookmaker he has a quite enormous responsibility actually - not to lose vast sums of money.
But as a punter he says that on a personal level he wants to see the bettors
win.
And if you don't think that's a knife edge to live with, come up with a better one.
Fixed odds betting, the greatest growth business racing and gaming in this country has ever known and probably ever will, is absolutely flying.
"Dambusters," is how Lally describes the progress of the betting form, which allows punters to keep the odds appropriate at the time the bet was placed.
"It's the fastest growing new betting product I've seen anywhere," he says.
Distinctly Secret's 2003 Kelt Capital Stakes win was the first race the TAB operated fixed odds betting on.
From that modest start - "we lost $2000 on the book" - the betting medium has exploded.
At Ellerslie on Boxing Day the combined on and off-course turnover was up 6.6 per cent, but fixed odds turnover was plus 46.6 per cent.
On the middle day it was plus 59.9 per cent and on the final day plus 12 per cent when the overall tote was down 4.5 per cent.
A significant factor in those increases is a greater number of races being bet on at fixed odds, but here is the exciting element - it's all new money.
"The normal win and place tote has not been affected," said Lally.
"You would expect some level of cannibalization, but that's not the case."
So how does the TAB do out of fixed odds betting - does it make a profit or lose dollars?
Well, the agency doesn't exactly tell us.
"We don't report the figures, essentially because we don't want to share that sort of information with our competitors," said TAB executive David Walsh. "It's a business decision."
Safe to say though the balance sheet is not in the red at the end of each season.
But the weekly figures are closely scrutinised by TAB management.
"For the first 12 months the bookies were learning a lot," says Walsh. "There was an element of volatility in the returns, even though there was a positive return at the end of the first year.
"They have learned a lot about tighter and tighter consistency."
Lally admits he has some hairy moments.
Like last year when two $250,000 multi-race bets came off for punters in the same week.
But then there were two multis, $250,000 and $150,000 finishing on the same horse, Man On Mars at Alexandra Park and he got beaten.
"People say to me it's not my money, but I still have to report to someone," says Lally.
He has one odds-setter for harness, one for greyhounds and two for galloping and he oversees all three with the responsibility of balancing the books.
There is questionable value in some of the futures betting, where horses are specked a long way out from raceday with no refund if they don't make it to raceday.
Take, for example, Sunrize, who was sharing favouritism for the Wellington Cup when the book opened nearly two months ago.
Sunrize had been hurt after racing at Hastings in September, then suffered another setback and it was always going to be doubtful whether he got to the big race at Trentham.
It was obvious some time back the promising stayer wouldn't and he resumed his career as late as Tauranga on Wednesday, but was still recently listed as a $14 Cup chance at the TAB.
The flip side is that Lally and his office have been heavily stung on the futures. They offered early odds of $80 around eventual Auckland Cup winner Pentane, who started warm favourite, the loss being somewhat offset only by a heavy raceday plunge on Zarius.
The 2000 Guineas winner in November, Magic Cape, was heavily backed by the connections at $35 when the book opened, which was before he resumed his 3-year-old career.
Another blue was opening Justa Tad up at $100 for the 1000 Guineas, which she won at short odds.
The key to futures betting is to spec a horse you fancy that might be at long odds early rather than one of the favourites that might end up at better odds on raceday.
For the Oaks the TAB fielded $1000 on Argyle Lass at $200, odds normally associated with horses not expected to make the field.
"But she did make the field and was running for $200,000 for the punter. She ran last, but I watched her for a fair part of the race."
It wasn't that long ago we saw possibly four or five races run on a Saturday at fixed odds - the TAB now runs more than 100 a week.
"We're running all R76 and up races and it's flying.
"The multis are the big star because punters can see on their ticket how quickly the potential dividend can build up."
Picking three, four, or five winners in a row is difficult as Pick6 results confirm, but there are huge returns for those who are successful and relief on the way for those who like things a little less volatile - multiple place betting.
"That's something for the future," says Lally.
Multiple, or all-up, place betting is a strong chance to rival fixed odds win multiples when introduced.
It's important to remember that in any bookmaking situation the odds offered are not necessarily parallel to that runner's chances.
In other words the TAB might consider a runner a $3 chance, but field it at $4.50 to help balance the book.
The ideal bookmaking scenario - almost impossible to achieve - is to have an equal liability on each runner.
The TAB often alters a runner's price away from its realistic chance to try and achieve something close to equal liability.
"We sometimes try and attract betting on some runners to offset liability on others," says Lally. "It means punters will get increased value on some runners."
The TAB uses its "Lay Of The Day" each Saturday for that means.
You can't talk to a bookie without asking for a tip.
Lally's is Al Farouk at Kumara.
"The Gold Nuggets will stay in the South Island." Sounds like a bad one to ask for any extra value on.
Futures betting
An example of some of the feature races the TAB has operated futures betting on in the last year.
Derby Wahid (1st) opened at $10, paid $3.30 on tote and was favourite.
Auckland Cup Pentane (1st) opened at $80, paid $5.25 on tote. Opening favourite was Kerry O'Reilly at $8.
Oaks Legs (1st) opened at $20, paid $15.15 on tote. Opening favourite was Pulcinella at $10.
1000 Guineas Dorabella (1st) opened at $40, paid $18.15 on tote. Opening favourite was Naturo at $5.
2000 Guineas Magic Cape (1st) opened at $35, paid $14.10 on tote. Opening favourite Jokers Wild at $5.
