KEY POINTS:
David Butcher has won and lost enough big races to know they should never be taken for granted - even on a $1.40 chance.
That is the hot seat the Cambridge reinsman finds himself sitting in tonight behind Lauraella in the $200,000 Pascoes Northern Oaks at Alexandra Park.
The first group one classic of Cup week should be Lauraella's to lose - she is the country's best pacing filly, is in sensational form and has the perfect draw.
Those factors have seen Lauraella close into red-hot favouritism for the Oaks and Butcher admits the race looks perfect.
"This is a race I have waited for for a while with her because she is a great stayer," said Butcher.
"I think the 2700m will suit her better than most of them and I suppose she should win.
"But you never underestimate your rivals in a big race, especially when a trainer as good as Mark Purdon has two in there."
Butcher is referring to Purdon's twin assault of Joyfuljoy and Imagine Me, who look the only legitimate dangers to the favourite.
Joyfuljoy downed Lauarella two starts ago in the Sires' Stakes Final, admittedly after a far easier run. And Imagine Me downed Joyfuljoy in their final lead-up race last Friday.
So while Lauraella is the star of her crop, there may not be much between the three favourites tonight. Especially at the start, when they will start almost alongside each other.
Joyfuljoy's trainer Mark Purdon is confident his filly can cross to the lead early from barrier five. And Butcher says that would open the race right up.
"That is why you have to go into big races with more than one plan."
If Lauraella can work her way to the front it is hard to see her being beaten because she shapes as a high-class stayer.
But if one of the Purdon pair get in front of Lauraella, the race will become a lot trickier and those who anchor the favourite in the last leg of New Zealand's first harness racing quaddie could be left feeling vulnerable.
And if the race does become a war of attrition, Imagine Me could represent the value. She is a good stayer, probably without the sheer speed of other two but up to winning if she can make her run off a hot pace.
But all things being equal, Lauraella should win.
While Butcher has the luxury of driving Lauarella like a stayer, he doesn't have that option with his other star drive, Awesome Armbro in the $60,000 NZ Herald Free-For-All.
The perennial runner-up gets his shot at a decent win in the 2200m mobile, with only Monkey King in his class among the opposition.
But his greatest asset is his speed - the same strength as Monkey King - so their battle could be tactical.
"Obviously, in a small field with two favourites, we could end up watching each other," said Butcher. "But my fella will be hard to beat."
He admits to not having as much confidence about Tintin In America in a tough opening heat of the Woodlands Derby.
As talented as almost any other star in the Derby series, Tintin In America has raced only sparingly this season because of small setbacks.
"It is hard against race-fit horses fresh up so our first priority will be to make the Derby."
FIRST CLASSIC
* The $200,000 Pascoes Northern Oaks is the first classic of Auckland Cup week.
* Lauraella is the hot favourite and best filly in the country.
* Tonight's meeting also features most of the best harness horses in the country.
* It will also host the first harness quaddie in this country with a guaranteed $100,000.
