Racing: Filly has a fabulous finish

Gaston is almost too good to bet against in the fifth at Ellerslie. Photo / Dean Purcell

The win of Sweet 'N' Keen at Ellerslie two weeks ago was no fluke.

It didn't quite mirror her maiden win over the Derby carnival, but was impressive just the same.

It confirmed the fabulous finish the filly can turn on and it should make her competitive in Race 4 at Ellerslie, even though she is dropping back from 1400m to 1200m.

If the forecast rain arrives it will make this more than a 1200m dash and will suit Sweet 'N' Keen.

It was slow for her maiden victory so you assume she will not mind at least some rain. Snave has to be a danger.

Gaston (No5, R5) has a win in heavy ground against his name so you have to assume he'll be at least reasonable if the rain arrives.

His finish is so brilliant, though, you have to believe if the track became testing it would somewhat hamper his late charge. He's almost too good to bet against. Stablemate Cent Per Cent (No2) won't mind it wet and looks the obvious danger. Don't leave Show Up (No6) out of multiple bets.

You only had to see Magic In Me (No2, R2) flash home late over 1400m last week at Te Aroha to suggest that 1600m next up was going to be ideal. It wasn't easy to make ground from behind last week and Magic In Me did extremely well. The 2kg claim again will be valuable.

Race 1, the 2200m R70, looks difficult, but there was a lot to admire about the way Commanding Oak (No4) won last start. This is a bit tougher, but he's the sort that could keep on improving. Endor (No2) is in the right space to continue his form.

We'll put the defeat of New Moon (No7, R3) at Tauranga last start to the mud. It wasn't easy for any of them, but New Moon seemed to struggle. He is very smart and can atone here.

Fashion Rocks (No4) can similarly be forgiven her last-start failure.

Shopaholic (No9, R6) finished so powerfully over 1200m for second at Te Aroha last weekend you have to believe the step to 1600m in the $45,000 Network Visuals Champagne Stakes will suit ideally. She looks ideally placed. Dowager Queen (No8) finished a good third to Anabandana in the group one juvenile at Manawatu, which is good form for this race. There are no Anabandanas in this field.

If the track is wet, Taranaki visitor I Am Sam (No3, R7) will take some containing. His record on the slow to heavy range is first class and he will be greatly improved for a first-up run, which produced an excellent fourth. Not Tonite (No2) has not had things go right for him lately and although a wet track might create some doubt, he rates highly.

Not Tonite's stablemate Fears Nothing (No 15, R8) looks a fine chance in the $200,000 Easter Handicap. His form right-handed - except for when things went wrong for him in a Derby challenge at Ellerslie - has been first class. He has won on both his previous trips north, the last with victory in the $100,000 Rich Hill Mile. Making him a slightly better risk than most is that he won't mind a bit of rain. The uncertainty about track conditions this late in the day (4.05pm) make the race difficult. Veyron (No9) has been in sparkling form, but if the track turned tough, it's difficult to imagine his on-pace style suiting the race. On decent footing that suited all horses would see him rate highly. Watch out for Firebolt (No4). He's hardly an everyday horse, but on his day he's better than most of these. Alegrio (No10) appeals as one that has to be included in multiple bets. Tough race without knowing the conditions, but traditionally Easter Handicaps have been that way.

If it rains watch out for Quickasucan (No10, R9). He resumed with a terrific third from last on this track last start and was probably not suited by the decent conditions that day. The wetter the better for him and decent rain would boost his chances considerably.

The track at Tauranga last time didn't suit many horses and Shantaine (No6, R10) was one of them even though she'd previously won in the wet. Give her another chance today. It gets very even behind her and conditions will definitely play a big part in sorting the others out.