KEY POINTS:
Class and luck wins most major races.
For that reason you have to settle on Gee I Jane in today's $200,000 Waiwera Infinity Railway Handicap at Ellerslie.
You know the Cambridge mare has the class to win. So then it comes down to luck and no horse alive
could be unlucky in a group one race three years in a row. Surely.
You could argue Gee I Jane could have won either of the 2005 and 2006 runnings of the Railway and although lumping clear topweight of 58kg is not going to be easy for her, she is going to get her chance from the all important No 2 gate.
It might be decades since a 3-year-old has won the Railway, but Imananabaa and Solvini will give it a good shake. They are different fillies - Solvini will lead and try and hold on and Imananabaa will be running at the leaders at some part of the home straight.
Willy Smith (No10, R7) has hit form at the right time to be a major force in the City Of Auckland Cup. You had to like the way he hit the line to be narrowly beaten at Te Rapa last start - it told you he will eat up the opportunity to have a crack at 2400m.
You want to go for decent odds here because this is an open, open race. So You (No14) and Australian-trained Upstaged (No6) have strong claims along with Chettak (No1), Casa De Campo (No15) and Mandela (No4). The best roughies in a nightmare race for punters are Bak Da Chief (No9) and Philamor (No11).
It took a pretty special effort from Loaded Command to beat Antipodean (No1, R2) at Te Rapa last start. He has the pace to once again take advantage of an inside barrier and should take some pulling back.
With its mix of raceday experience and very promising unraced types, race three, the 2-year-old Eclipse Stakes, looks extremely difficult for punters. True Emotions (No10) won then lost her debut run at Manawatu and comes into this from a handy barrier. She looks very talented. Mallinson Road (No2) threw in a cracker last start, but has drawn wide enough for it to be awkward here. Well bred Roussay (No7) was super impressive at the trials, but has drawn even wider and Seppelt (No5) and Dude (No6) have stylish trials form. And they all meet Jacob (No1), who doesn't do things with any great brilliance, but has won two of his last three. Good luck here.
Unless there is an overnight scratching from the Railway, Inshelucky (No3) will run here in race four. Her luck has been woeful but if she gets the breaks this time she will go close. Buddy Lammas' 1kg claim will be valuable. Superalloy (No1) probably found the track a little too firm for him when beaten favourite here on November 25. It won't be a great deal different today, but at least his legs will be fresh from the break away from racing. The biggest plus is the 4kg the very talented Tasha Collett will drag off his 58kg. Clarissa (No7) can throw in a big run fresh.
As a result of a stack of qualifying races, the Dunstan Championship is an extremely competitive race. There have been some impressive lead-ups, among them Darringdo's (No3, R5) Ellerslie win two starts back. He subsequently missed the money at Te Rapa, but came out of gate 15 and although he has a wide barrier again Leith Innes will be looking to get him quick cover.
Young Centaur (No9) is improving each time, The Fuzz (No12) has run seconds to three very smart types in Danny Cool, Casa De Campo and Kingsinga and Power Cut (No6) goes into this shooting for four straight. The winner of this will deserve it.
If there is an Ellerslie starting point you don't want to draw wide in a group-rated race it's 2000m.
Veloce Bella (No1, R6) and Princess Coup (No2), the first two home in the Eight Carat Classic on Boxing Day, have drawn gates 11 and 14. They can still go close, but luck has to come their way. Veloce Bella is an outstanding filly and Princess Coup covered more ground than her last week.
The danger is Post Thyme (No6), who has given every indication of wanting this first step up to a middle distance. Her sectional times are terrific and look to her to be running at the leaders hard from the 200m. Given the draws, the tactics here will be fascinating.
Forget Gaze (No5, R9) went badly in the Gasmate Stakes. Like many on the day she slipped at the start and that was her race gone. The pointer here is her dashing fresh-up Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes win on this track the time before. She is class and from 53.5kg level will give this a shake.
The Silence Sir (No8) is a newcomer to this class, but always looked as though he'd measure up. He's done well since winning at Te Rapa and can make the step up. The value is Everswindell (No13), who did not get a fair shake last start.
The last, race 10, looks a tough "get-out" race, but Golconda (No7) suggested a win was close when she flashed home late from last when resuming here on December 17.