Toughness in very testing conditions will win the money more often than not today. Joey Jonz (No1, R3) has just those requirements. He gets 3kg off his 59.5kg and that might just be the winning of the race. He can tough out most events and he is dropping back in grade from open company. What beats him wins.
Eksuude (No2, R4) has displayed a rare type of toughness in his last two starts, just going down two starts back then turning the tables last start. He will carry his full 59kg so this won't be easy, but he has only to show his best to be the one to beat again. Wajima (No5) will handle these conditions better than the Taranaki footing that beat him last start.
Wee Biskit (No2, R5) will just adore the deep, testing footing as she did when she won this race, the Great Northern Hurdles, last year.
This track will not be greatly different from the waterlogged track of 12 months ago. Her form this campaign, on tracks that suit her, has been first class. Thenamesbond (No3) and Australia's best jumps jockey Steve Pateman will be tough and it will be interesting to see if classy Just Got Home (No1) can manage the distance in these conditions.
Ethical (No5, R6) has poor form on paper, but it may pay to ignore that. She is a lot better and the track today will be a lot better than the footing she has struggled with lately. A telling stat is that she has won both her Ellerslie starts. Difficult to sort out the rest of the field. Go Ethical each way.
If you take the Pakuranga Hunt Cup out of the equation, Amanood Lad (No1, R7) would be clear favourite for the race everyone wants to see, the $125,000 Great Northern Steeplechase. He didn't see out the Pakuranga, but he appeared to race a touch keenly.
Remember how he saw this race out to win last year in extremely testing conditions and you will want to be on him again. Snodroptwinkletoes (No4) has been set for this race and with a 5kg pull in the weights is the horse to beat. Jack Romanov (No3) stuck out the Pakuranga Hunt Cup brilliantly.
Guevara (No3, R8) stuck on fabulously well for a close second at Ruakaka last week and his record is much better on rain-affected tracks. He should be in this for a good way. Illuminati (No5) has a good record in the wet and should be right in this.
Eletist (No1, R9) has his first start back after a sole Australian start from John Sargent's Sydney stable in which he lost his apprentice rider early in the race.
He is very good in the wet and can be difficult to manage here. Roc That (No4) could surprise. His last start was mystifying.
The last is a tough race, but Victoria Heights (No9, R10) is right in the race. Stralis (No13) will slug it out better than most here.
