Racing: Dynastic dilemma for the punters

Dynastic should be favourite but suffered a last-start failure in the Hawke's Bay Guineas at Matamata. Photo / Supplied

Premiership leading trainer Mark Walker thinks he might know what caused one of the most perplexing failures of the spring so far, but he isn't letting that muddy the waters around Dynastic's chances in tomorrow's $120,000 Sarten Memorial at Te Rapa.

Dynastic finds himself in the unusual position of being only second favourite for the 1400m Group 2, which serves as the most important lead-up to the 2000 Guineas at Riccarton in two weeks.

At his Karaka Million-winning best Dynastic deserves to be favourite for any race he starts in New Zealand, but he has lost that honour tomorrow after a dramatic and expensive last-start failure in the Hawke's Bay Guineas at Matamata.

Walker says he thinks the colt may have suffered heart fibrillation in that race but one where his heart came back to its normal rhythm so quickly it wasn't detectable.

"I think that is what might have happened but I can't prove it," Walker told the Herald yesterday.

"We have had him extensively checked out by our vet and we can't find anything so all you can do is press on.

"And his work on Tuesday was good, good enough to suggest he can win. But of course after what happened last start there is at least some uncertainty."

As good as Sacred Satono was winning at Ruakaka last start, the best version of Dynastic may be too classy for him, especially back on a good track. But those last-start doubts are why punters are getting $4.50 fixed rather than his usual $2.50.

There is much more than just the winning stakes on the line for Dynastic as an unplaced run could see him miss the trip to Riccarton and the enormous value of a Group 1 win, and he could be retargeted towards the Karaka Classic Mile in January.

Sacred Satono is the logical danger as he can jump and run and gets in-form Michael McNab on board while Walker likes his second-stinger Wild Night but says he is a less likely candidate for Riccarton, which suggests he has a way to go to win tomorrow.

Another key runner to watch from a Guineas perspective is Desert Lightning, who might be ready for 1600m but will appreciate better track conditions and is better than his formline suggests.

While Walker is happy with his Te Rapa team, including classic mares Self Obsession and The Perfect Pink who return in race eight, his focus will also be on Riccarton where his stable rep Cognito, who has somewhat surprisingly leapt to 2000 Guineas favouritism, caps his preparation.

"He is progressive and is ready for 1600m so he will be hard to beat."

Walker has four starters in the juvenile race at Riccarton and opts for Sky On Fire (R4, No 8) as his best chance even though she was beaten on debut and two of the stable's other reps have already won races.

"She is a filly we like quite a lot and she has thrived since she arrived in the south," he explains.

"I was surprised she was beaten fresh-up but I think she can go one better on Saturday."