Racing: Durham Town one of the better bets at Ellerslie

Durham Town looks well placed with just 56kg. Photo / Richard Robinson

Despite some obvious dangers, Durham Town looks the best prospect in race 7, the $100,000 Darley Plate, on Ellerslie's Derby Day this afternoon.

Big weights and the occasional dodgy conditions has caught Durham Town in the last 12 months, but this is a race he can win.

There is only a 3kg scale on this handicap and Durham Town looks well placed with just 56kg. Vinnie Colgan should be able to position him well from the No5 gate and luck should not become a factor.

The value in the race is Trepidation, who was unplaced behind Irish Fling in the Telegraph last start, but can be forgiven that.

The supporting races today are generally not easy punting propositions and the opener is no exception. Southern visitor Locket (No1, R1) might be a reasonable spec bet at reasonable odds. In this grade at Te Rapa two starts back she came from a long way back to finish close up behind Carlotta in sixth place. She dropped a grade at Otaki last week and under a big 58.5kg got home strongly into a close fourth. Going up a grade again here she drops to 54kg, which will suit, and from the No 1 barrier Chris Johnson should get her the run of the race. Tricky race.

Race 2 is a toss between Biggin Hill (No2), resuming from a spell and Dresden Park (No11), who has the recent form on the board.

Dresden Park might be the better risk. She goes up a grade from her last-start Ellerslie win and from the No1 gate Matt Cameron should get the perfect passage. Biggin Hill is smart and has previously won when fresh from a spell. Fort Lincoln (No3) might be the surprise.

Smartly (No2, R3) is a prospect in a strange race. Southerner Alpine Heights (No1) is topweight with 59.5kg and the remainder of the field come in on 53kg. Smartly failed last week on her home track at Matamata, but rider Noel Harris and trainer Wayne Hillis felt it was caused by dropping back from 2400m to 2000m. Today it's 2200m and although a slightly more yielding track would suit, she rates highly.

Lady Cumquat (No8, R5) is a filly of very good promise. She looked good when resuming from a break when second to another smart type in Dresden Park on February 15 on this track. She got back from a wide gate, had to come wide on the corner and proved very determined in a tight finish. A fair draw in a smaller field this time will suit. Ultraviolet (No6) is also good and Altius (No2) has always shown real potential. Competitive affair.

Casillas (No2, R6) goes around as the best named horse today. He's by Keeper and carries the name of the famous Spanish goalkeeper. He looked good winning on debut and has not raced for a long time, but showed he was ready to resume when he won a recent Cambridge barrier trial, beating Von Krumm, who won exceptionally well at Matamata last week. The 2kg apprentice allowance will help. Lady De Chine (No4) could be great value.

Delveen (No4, R8) is due another victory. She fought hard when just beaten at Ellerslie last start and although the No12 barrier will be no help, she rates highly in this line-up. There are plenty of upset chances here. Wairaka (No13) got a long way back from an unsuitable bad barrier at Te Rapa last start and finished off strongly into fifth behind stablemate Full Monty.

For the Derby (R9), the $1.95 the TAB were offering on a special bet late yesterday on Puccini and Rising Romance versus the rest of the field looked a pretty good option. It is a tricky betting prospect, because it all comes down to whether Puccini can overcome his tendency to not clear the starting gates as fast as some runners and get the lead.

If he doesn't it completely changes the context of the race. If he does it's a Puccini versus Rising Romance scenario.

Cashfield (No2, R10) looked good clearing maidens at Te Aroha last start and Harmonize (No9) did the same winning at Pukekohe. Good race between these two, although not exclusively, and the 2.5kg weight differential in Harmonize might prove to be significant.