Late yesterday Chris Gibbs got nervous ahead of tomorrow's $1m Vodafone Derby.
No, there is nothing wrong with his stable's Derby favourite Danzdanzdance, it's more Gibbs' own physicality.
"I watched Trackside's televised Derby preview this morning and just about everyone has tipped the filly. I don't really like that, I'drather be flying under the radar."
Okay, but then you mention that is better than having a $100 chance that no one wants to mention.
Then two hours later Gibbs was reassured with the news Scott Base had been withdrawn when found to be suffering from a bruised heel.
"It couldn't have happened at a worse time," said a disappointed co-trainer Johno Benner. "Hopefully we can have him right to take on a Sydney autumn campaign."
The biggest shortener since the TAB declared its post-barrier draw market on Wednesday is Mission Hill, in to $7 from $8.20.
Often a lead-up race like the Avondale Guineas will sort out a clearcut obvious Derby choice. Not this time. Scott Base, Mission Hill and Danzdanzdance formed a line of three to work around the field from the tail at the 900m and on their performances — 4th, 5th and 2nd — all close up, you can make a solid case any one of them could win the Derby.
Then you have the winner of that race, On The Rocks, who came from a much more favourable close up position in running, but was very strong on the line.
It couldn't have happened at a worse time.
Vin De Dance finished a close third and raced a touch more one-paced than the other four in the closing 300m, but indicated he will love the step to 2400m.
So, what will sort this race out? Well, the run down the straight the first time will probably help determine 40 per cent of it. Then the run between the 650m to the home turn and whether all those mentioned above barring the withdrawn Scott Base can get a lead into the race behind another runner and whether — most importantly — they can avoid trouble as the non-stayers drop back quickly in the run up to the home bend.
Finally strength. Even though there are exceptions, in most derbies, here and abroad, there are perhaps seven or eight in contention at the 400m, four or possibly five at the 200m and down to one or two at the 50m. Strength becomes the determining factor in the final six strides.
Which is why very few derbies are won by fillies, almost always they are the best 3-year-old of their crop, male or female. Which is why we are selecting Mission Hill to test Danzdanzdance.
In terms of real ability there is probably very little between Danzdanzdance and Mission Hill. Absolutely no knock on Danzdanzdance's close second in the Avondale Guineas, the sprint she showed to nearly pick up On The Rocks from the 300m was fabulous, but watch the race again she was, perhaps understandably, at the end of her run in the closing strides and you can make the case had the race continued another 100m she would not have closed the narrow gap between the pair.
This time she has another 300m to run. She is a very lightly-boned filly that doesn't carry huge condition, the balancing factor is that she has trained on sensationally well since that race.
"She doesn't take a lot of work. It's just a matter of keeping her up to the mark and keep her happy rather than pressing buttons," says Gibbs. "She did a bit of work on the beach on Tuesday morning and that's all she needs."
Mission Hill's support comes in part from his unlucky run in the Avondale Guineas. He was in the middle of the trio of horses coming around the field and was badly buffeted as they straightened but worse was to come.
When Scott Base went outside the horses in front and Danzdanzdance inside them, Mission Hill was blocked behind that group. With clear air he may well have won the Guineas and would then be the warm favourite here.
The Baker/Forsman stable originally felt Mission Hill was a fraction behind some of the stable's other 3-year-olds, but his Avondale Guineas performance showed him to be right up with the country's best.
If the Logan/Gibbs stable were delighted with Danzdanzdance's inside gate, the draws of their stablemates Endowment (20) and Tavlin (21) were shockers. "I'm happy with both horses, but it's difficult to come up with a game plan from those draws. It's something we'll have to think about tomorrow," said Gibbs.
