Racing: Derby colt faces tough task

Smiling Shard may have his work cut out to beat Kotare Mach tonight. Photo / Richard Robinson

It took less than a minute last week for trainer Cran Dalgety to realise Smiling Shard is in trouble in his comeback race at Addington tonight.

Actually, it took 56.8 seconds. That was how long it took arch-rival Kotare Mach to complete his last 800m at the Ashburton trials nine days ago, leaving Smiling Shard in his dust.

That, coupled with a favourable draw for Kotare Mach in tonight's $40,000 Flying Stakes, has convinced Dalgety his stable star can't win.

"On what I saw last week, Kotare Mach will be too good for us," said Dalgety.

"My horse is short of race fitness and Kotare Mach just dealt to us last week.

"We all know how good he [Kotare Mach] is when he gets his way in front and that looks like happening this week so I'd be thrilled if we could run second."

Tonight's race is the major lead-up to the New Zealand Derby in two weeks and Smiling Shard goes into the series on the back hoof, after an injury ruled him out of the Woodlands Derby two weeks ago.

While he is the best performed 3-year-old in the country he is probably no more talented than Kotare Mach or the latter's stablemate Russley Rascal, who has been allowed to miss tonight's race.

Smiling Shard possesses toughness and perfect racing manners, whereas Kotare Mach has often let himself down on the biggest stage by fiercely over-racing.

That is why tonight's 1950m event suits Kotare Mach so perfectly. He has the chance to try for the early lead in a race which should lack any searing mid-race pressure and the mental toll that could exact on him.

Given an easy middle section of the race in front, Kotare Mach should win but the run of Smiling Shard will be the biggest pointer to the Derby.

"He is as well as we can have him after his setback in January but race fitness at this level is another thing all together," said Dalgety of Smiling Shard.

Woodlands Northern Derby runner-up Five Star Anvil looks a great place and trifecta bet tonight, drawing ideally at barrier one to get the perfect trip.

Others like Sir Lincoln, who could win at his best but probably isn't going to be at that level tonight, Four Starzzz Flash, Gomeo Romeo and the impressive Captain Peacock add to a fine field but most of them are drawn to work far harder than the favoured pair.

While Dalgety's prime focus tonight will be on the comeback of Smiling Shard, he is quietly confident Bettor's Strike can overcome a difficult draw in the $25,000 free-for-all pace.

The Victoria Cup winner ran only seventh in the Auckland Cup last start but was the only horse in that race to make decent ground wide on the track in the last 800m.

He faces a tricky draw tonight but in a small field he shouldn't be too far from the lead and only Baileys Dream and Awesome Armbro among his rivals are in his class tonight.

"I think he went all right in the Auckland Cup and the run wouldn't have hurt him because he didn't do anything," said Dalgety.

"The draw is tricky this week and a lot depends on who leads and how they control the race but he is well enough to win."

Baileys Dream would only have to race up to his Auckland Cup third or best Interdominion form to be the one to beat, although he does have a massive change of driver, with trainer Brendon Hill taking the reins.

Hill rarely drives in races, let alone in open-class, but is an under-rated horseman and should still do the right thing by Baileys Dream, which makes him the best bet in the race.

Meanwhile, Dalgety unleashes a powerful support team tonight, with Feels Like Magic (race one), Romulus (race two) and Hip Hop Anvil (race five) all good winning chances.

"Two of them have bad draws but, on the whole, they are ready to go big races."

PREMIER NIGHT

* Three-year-olds dominate tonight's premier meeting at Addington.
* The best trotters clash in the $80,000 Trotting Derby.
* Smiling Shard returns in the $40,000 Flying Stakes.
* Baileys Dream heads the open class stars in the free-for-all.