Banchee faces the acid test over 2100m tomorrow in her Derby prelude. Photo / Sarah Ivey
Avondale Guineas will separate the contenders from 2400m pretenders.
There are many more questions than answers going into tomorrow's $85,000 Supadeal Furniture Avondale Guineas at Ellerslie.
Like will O'Reilly's Prize and Banchee manage the 2100m in their first start beyond 1600m?
Will He's Remarkable and O'Reilly's Prize be adversely affected by very wide barrier draws?
When the Avondale Guineas
and Derby were run in December the Avondale race was something of a guide to the big classic.
Tomorrow's race will be THE definitive guide to the $2.2 million Telecom Derby in two weeks.
Trainer John Sargent has one or two concerns about Banchee's chances tomorrow, but one of them is not the 2100m.
"She runs out the 1600m strongly so I have no doubt she'll manage the 2100m."
Sargent is less sure about the 2400m of the Derby, but says he will know one way or the other after this race and his main issue this time is the running rail being 10m out from the true position. "She's going to get back off them as usual, but because she has drawn reasonably well she won't have to go right back.
"We'll ride her as she needs to be ridden, but the rail being out there will make it difficult for horses in the second half of the field to make ground.
"This will tell us about the 2400m - Tidal Light and Snap managed the Derby distance and weren't bred to, so I suspect she'll probably be okay."
After finishing third in the 2100m Championship Stakes, Yourein was dropped back to 1600m for the $200,000 NZ Bloodstock Insurance race and ran on well for sixth to Banchee.
"He's an on-pace runner who will be suited this time," said Sargent. "He'll get any trip, he's a real stayer."
Sargent's third runner is Yin Yang Master, who has only twice missed the money in eight starts.
He was only half a length from stablemate Banchee at Ellerslie two starts back and chased Jimmy Choux home into second in the Waikato Guineas last start.
He has the speed to take advantage of his good barrier.
Trainer Roger James is fully prepared to see He's Remarkable being somewhat hampered by the rail being out so wide. "It's always very difficult to improve from the back under those circumstances because you get shuffled out when you're trying to improve and end up in the centre of the track.
"But that's up to the rider and the horse. I'm very happy with him, his preparation has gone perfectly."
If all the leading chances had drawn well this would be a confusing race, the fact many top hopes have drawn badly makes it doubly so.
Raffles Knight has looked a stayer in the making and it's a shame he has come up with a difficult barrier.
Avondale Guineas
* Banchee has her first start beyond 1600m and trainer John Sargent believes she will cope well.
* She has drawn a good barrier, unlike He's Remarkable, who will come from the outside starting gate.
* The running rail being out 10m will make life difficult for back runners.
