Racing: Demon looks helluva bet

Demonetization looks the type that will improve with a little more experience and running around Ellerslie will help his education. Photo / Race Images

Probably the biggest single moment in racing in the past weeks was the successful punt on the Nigel Tiley-trained Demonetization at Tauranga and the Derby potential that promised.

Demonetization just got home in that race from the more experienced filly Kapoor and there is no reason that pair cannot produce the quinella in Race 5 at Ellerslie this afternoon.

The Tiley young galloper did it tough in running at Tauranga and still showed guts under pressure to get the result. He looks the type that will improve with a little more experience and running around Ellerslie will help with his education.

Kapoor is a good filly. She gives the impression she is still learning when to switch on and off, but that will come with experience. When she gets the idea to go forward late in her races her determination is admirable in the extreme.

Sweet Leader (No4, R1) displayed top class ability in a brief career last season, despite being hampered and sidelined with a minor respiratory issue. He has a dynamic finishing sprint and although he hasn't had a barrier trial to fit him up for his resumption, he appeals as the type that could get away with that. It will take a big effort to keep him out if he's close to his best. Lewis Caroll (No1) is all class and will run a big race. Even with an apprentice allowance he carries 58.5kg and that is often a worry with a speed horse racing in good company at Ellerslie. He won't give in without a fight though. Selfie (No2) should be in the multiples.

Race 2 is a touch tough so we'll go for a bit of value in former Hong Kong galloper King's Cross (No2). He failed to find his New Zealand form in Hong Kong and is back with Stephen Marsh. There was a bit to like about his soft barrier trial victory at Cambridge recently and he has the No1 barrier to assist here. Midnight Runner (No5) won stylishly at Pukekohe and there could have been a suggestion that being by Jimmy Choux the heavy track that day helped him, but before that he managed a nice trial win on a good surface at Ruakaka and today's good conditions may not be a problem. Morrie Ock (No6) and Tattybogler (No10) are useful chances for multiple bettors.

Bella Testa (No10, R3) overcame getting out late to win nicely at Avondale last time. This assignment looks a bit tougher, but there is an upside to her. Clarify (No1), despite topweight always has to be considered and Magic Chai (No2) is worth a look.

The way Kachhi (No7, R4) races she is quickly going to need a middle distance, but she was only just topped off at this 1600m distance here last start. The impressive part of that race was at the 220m she looks as though she was going to do nothing then she got going and launched at the line. A similar effort would have her close here. Lady Shabeel (No6) is an improver and Princess Sapphire (No11) are right in the race.

Romancer (No2, R6) came off a previous preparation in middle distance racing to win fresh-up at Avondale over 1200m. He got home, but raced like he was desperately looking for further and you have to hope here that 1400m will not be too sharp for him. Helping will be the fact that Ellerslie is a bit tougher in the closing stages than Avondale. He is one to stay with. Plenty of chances here and one not to leave out is Thatsforsure (No12) is much better than her paper form reads. She has had no luck, even if at times she makes her own bad luck with tardy beginnings. She can be in this. Neeson (No6) is a strong hope.

Hiflyer (No2, R7) missed the planned Tauranga outing, but should still be at peak here. He is classy and does not lack heart and what beats him will win. At her best Stolen Dance (No8) is as good as most around. She didn't figure at Tauranga, but made a little ground late and could have been one race away. At her peak she would win this. After some disappointing efforts Splurge (No4) was a bit better at Tauranga and could be on the way back.

The last is not as easy as you'd like to see for a get-out stakes. Savapak (No5, R8) and Narvick (No4) are perhaps the best two chances, but there is ample scope for an upset.

• Watch Sydney's weather today. Rain is forecast. If it doesn't arrive there are a few decent bets at short odds: Race 6, Melbourne winner Savapanski, Race 9 Machinegun Jubs, Race 3 the Doukhan-Cordero quinella could be the way to go.