KEY POINTS:
Congaline's bumpy road to the Thorndon Mile just found another pothole.
The exciting Mark Walker trained 4-year-old desperately needs a win at Tauranga today to remain a slim hope of chasing group one glory at Trentham on January 27.
But if the weather forecasters are right and Bay
of Plenty cops the worst of this week's summer storm, the long-striding gelding is suddenly vulnerable in a race he should have been a certainty.
Congaline has been successful twice before on rain-affected going but don't get too caught up in those statistics, warns Walker.
The last time out, just three starts back, he ran a respectable 1.39 flat for 1600m in taking a R83 event on a soft Te Rapa surface in July.
If the deluge arrives today, though, Tauranga's long-sweeping bend won't give Congaline and stable apprentice Troy Harris the same chance to get balanced.
The winner of three races from just 12 starts is due a change of luck.
Congaline had a chequered run when a beaten second favourite behind The Foreman at Te Rapa on December 16.
Then next raceday he was late scratched when he went down on his nose and became cast in the barrier before the Rich Hill Mile at Ellerslie on January 1.
Walker says Congaline has come through that inexplicable rodeo act without a scratch.
All he can do now is pray the rain doesn't wash away Congaline's faint chance of making the Thorndon field.
"You could say he's been a bit unlucky lately, but at the same time he certainly brings on his own bad luck because he's still a big greeny," says Walker.
If Congaline, a $81 fixed odds hope with the TAB for the Thorndon yesterday, doesn't notch the win he needs to leapfrog up the ratings he'll be set for an undercard feature, the $50,000 Douro Cup against R94 rivals.
Group placed Our Mavourneen is the obvious threat to Congaline if the umbrellas stay out today.
He finished a distant last in Dezigna's Rich Hill Mile last time, but just three starts back he flashed home late, beaten just half a neck in the Couplands Bakeries Central Trial on a heavy track. Our Mavourneen has won three from five attempts on rain-soaked ground.
Last-start winner Geordie Girl could be the best of Walker's runners today.
The Towkay filly was impressive in scoring at Pukekohe on December 30 and her trainer has a gut feeling she'll cope with a track downgrade.