KEY POINTS:
You have to go back at least seven months to find betting races comparable to what we'll see today.
And that goes for Ellerslie and Trentham.
It's one of those days that if you get it right, Christmas will definitely arrive early.
Unless you want to take the
$1.70 about Seachange - and she's definitely value at that - you have to look at the trifecta in the $200,000 Captain Cook Stakes.
That's not as easy as it sounds because there is not a lot separating the next four or five chances. Most will anchor Sir Slick to finish second, and that will probably happen, but if he turns in another shocker like he did in the Kelt at Hastings, a reasonable trifecta price is on offer.
Bonjour is a must-include in the trifecta and the best value is Porotene Gem. She was only 1.3 lengths from Princess Coup in the Kelt and Lisa Cropp should get on well with her. The small field and the long run in will suit. Terrific race.
So is the Guineas. There was little between Alamosa (No1, R6) and El Cuento (No2) in the Hawkes Bay Guineas after El Cuento drew wide and worked to get to the lead.
There is little between them again, but El Cuento will almost certainly be the better value on the tote. If he's significantly longer in the odds than Alamosa he's worth attention. Rios (No4) is the interesting runner. This is a slight step up in class, but there was a lot to like about his Bonecrusher Stakes win and rider David Walsh has always said time and more distance will be his friend. Don't be staggered if Special Mission (No11) pokes her nose into the trifecta.
Hoorang (No6, R5) had no luck at all in her last two starts at the Hastings carnival, sitting wide on Kelt day and missing out on a run in the closing stages on the middle day. She gets her chance for some consolation money in the R90 at Trentham. The outside draw is not ideal, but the medium- sized field will help. Prized Punch (No2) had to cover some ground at Hastings last start and the run was better than it looked, even though he finished ninth. The Step from 160m to 2200m is the big assist. Sputnik (No3) is better than his beaten run at Matamata.
Hitchcock (No8, R7) and Maximum Star (No11) are down for a re-match of their quinella result in the last race of the Hastings carnival. Hitchcock landed some big bets, but had to do it tough in covering a huge amount of extra ground from a wide gate to do it. Maximum Star also covered ground that day, so his effort was also smart. Hitchcock is really going places and he'll need to be good to win today from a wide gate and having to give Maximum Star an additional 1.5kg, but he's capable of landing the money again.
Annapurna (No2, R9) did a terrific job with her first-up second to talented Shelby at Otaki a couple of weeks ago. She has drawn perfectly at the 1400m and looks a good each way all day chance. Yanna Marie (No8) is not far away.
It took forever for Stand Tall (No5, R10) to get over the top of them to win at Pukekohe last start, but perhaps the slow footing blunted his finishing effort. He should be even better suited in the last at Trentham today.
One of the better bets at Ellerslie should be The Sportsman (No3, R6). He has been beaten out of the money in two starts since his last Ellerslie victory, but they were in strong metric mile fields and he has been looking for more distance. He gets it today with the 2100m and should put in a big effort. Everswindell (No4) made ground into second at Hastings last start when having her first middle distance this time back. She should be fitter for that and will offer The Sportsman plenty of opposition.
The open 1400m is a nightmare betting race, but will be lucrative if you can get it right.
The race will answer questions like is Wahid (No3, R7) back to his best and if so is he ready to win at his second start back from a lengthy break? Similarly, is Charliehorse (No6) ready at his first attempt after a spell.
The best each way value in this race might be Zerello (No8), a course and distance winner. She is a lot fitter for her first-up Hastings run as she showed with an effortless Cambridge barrier trial win.
Elblitzem (No14) has talent and can help boost the trifecta dividend and don't be surprised if Fiscal Madness (No1) puts in a big run fresh.
The 2kg Tasha Collett takes off the back of Magic Tryst (No2, R8) could be the winning of the race. She is a mare of extreme brilliance and with a barrier trial behind her will run a massive 1200m fresh from a spell. She will give you a great sight for a long time. Fourwinners (No9) was unlucky in a very strong race when resuming at Hastings. Unfortunately he has drawn wide and Jason Waddell will need to weave some magic to prevent him covering too much extra ground.
