Racing: Dalgety's Derby dream for Addington - positives will outweigh the negatives for Krug at NZ Pacing Derby

Krug winning at Alexandra Park. Photo / Trish Dunell

The positives of Monday outweigh the negatives of Tuesday for Krug heading into tomorrow night's $200,000 NZ Pacing Derby at Addington.

The high-class colt is trying to add this derby to the Woodlands Derby he won in spectacular style at Alexandra Park last month but there is a reason only future open-class stars tend to win both pacing derbies.

First you have to be special, second you have to avoid bad luck.

Krug may be special but that bad luck has an increasing chance of kicking in as he has drawn the outside of the front line, with plenty of speedster rivals drawn inside him.

That would suggest there will be no repeat of Krug waltzing to the front as he has the last three times he won.

But trainer Cran Dalgety is seeing positives where others may see negatives.

"As long as he didn't draw the inside of the second line I was going to be happy," says Dalgety.

While some might argue barrier nine, which will become eight with the emergencies out, isn't much better, Dalgety says he has the horse power to handle it.

Krug has already shown he can do freakish things when in the zone as seen in the Northern Derby when he half-bolted on Tony Herlihy but still smashed his opponents.

It is a similar field tomorrow night and key rivals such as Ragazzo Mach and American Dealer have drawn the second line but there is still plenty of gate speed in B D Joe (4), It's All About Faith (5) and Shan Noble (8) between Krug and the marker pegs which is where so many derby winners come.

So can Krug work for maybe the first 800m and win?

"I think he can because he is better than when he won the Flying Stakes two weeks ago," says Dalgety.

"I always expected he would be because I eased off him after his Derby win up in Auckland and he was going to improve on what he did after the Flying Stakes.

"But I am surprised how much he has improved. His work on Monday was at another level and he is a fair way better than he was last start."

So while Krug is almost certainly the best horse in this Derby, if the opening 800m gets too hectic there could be value in those having an easier time, most likely B D Joe on the markers or the swoopers Ragazzo Mach, American Dealer or Pace N Pride.

While the Derby is the centrepiece of Addington's biggest meeting of the season outside Cup week, there is enormous depth across the card.

But champion comeback driver Mark Purdon is warning punters not to read too much into some markets.

Purdon drives Akuta, who he part-owns, in the $50,000 Welcome Stakes and he is one of four in the race for trainer Hayden Cullen. There is little between them even though Akuta is a warm favourite.

"I think Hayden has four good two-year-olds and they are very even so Akuta wouldn't be any better than the others yet," says Purdon. "I think they will sort themselves out over the next six weeks or so but any of the four could win."

Purdon feels the same about Self Assured and Amazing Dream when the two Cup winners clash in the Superstars.

Self Assured is the $2.10 favourite but while he won the Easter Cup last week he was entitled to after being gifted the lead mid-race and appears a few percentage points off his NZ Cup-winning form of November.

"They can obviously both win but it might come down to the run because I wouldn't be surprised to see Pembrook Playboy lead and stay in front," says Purdon. "So I couldn't decide between those two."