Racing: Cutadeel needs ace card

Cutadeel (centre) will have to show some of his old form on Derby Day at Ellerslie this Saturday. Photo / Trish Dunell

Derby champion Murray Baker knows it isn't impossible to turn a poor dress rehearsal into a stellar main event because he has done it once before.

But therein lies the problem for Baker as he tries to turn around Cutadeel's last-start Avondale Guineas shocker heading into Saturday's $1 million Vodafone Derby at Ellerslie: of all the Derbies that Baker has won he has only pulled off the total form turnaround once.

"Mongolian Khan did it, he is about the only one," says Baker in his laconic way. "He went pretty poor in the Rosehill Guineas then came out and won the Australian Derby at his next start.

"But I've found in my career when they go below par in their final race before a Derby it is very, very hard to turn them around because you don't have a lot of time."

Not that the Avondale Guineas two weeks ago, by far the most important Derby lead-up, was a complete disaster for Baker and training partner Andrew Forsman.

Their outsider Bobby Dee was a strong fourth while The Chosen One fought on well for seventh after being taken on in front. But it was Cutadeel's bubble that burst the loudest.

"He was disappointing, no doubt about it," Baker said of the one-time Derby favourite.

"We had him checked out after the race and there is nothing wrong with him but he was way below his best.

"So I'd like to think we could turn him around but history will tell you that is a very hard thing to do."

It has to be Surely Sacred because the Avondale Guineas is the best lead-up form for the Derby these days.

Murray Baker

It became even harder yesterday when Cutadeel drew barrier 21, to start from 17 if the emergencies come out, which even allowing for the long run down the straight means his Derby mission is trending in the wrong direction.

Baker would like to see The Chosen One ridden just off the speed while he says Bobby Dee is heading in the right direction and being a son of Zed, who sires everything from three-year-old stakes performers to steeplechasers, he shouldn't shirk the 2400m. But the master trainer makes no bones about who the horse to beat on Saturday is.

"It has to be Surely Sacred because the Avondale Guineas is the best lead-up form for the Derby these days."

Surely Sacred got barrier four and has one of the few people with a Derby record to match Baker's in jockey Vinnie Colgan to guide him, with the potential he could settle handier than he has for much of this campaign because of his draw and the steadier tempo.

He is the $3.80 favourite for trainer Tony Pike inside of Vernanme at $5.50 while the biggest market mover has been Platinum Invador. Once a $61 chance for the classic and as long as $21 last week he is now $8.50 after sneaking into the field courtesy of his win at Otaki last Saturday.

While the Derby dominates the day as one of New Zealand's truly great races should, Ellerslie bosses will be thrilled with the depth in the remaining features. The three-year-old sprint is a beauty, the open class sprint the Waikato Stud Plate has Telegraph runner-up Ferrando and a host of top mares and the Sunline Vase has plenty of genuine NZ Oaks contenders.