Paul Duncan's worst fears have been realised as Pinsoir heads into Tauranga tomorrow.
When Pinsoir ended what seemed like an endless run of outs with a dashing Hastings victory last start, Duncan knew he was running out of decent summer and autumn tracks.
The Cambridge trainer was less than delightedwhen he saw on the NZTR website yesterday that the Tauranga track, after 33mm of rain on Wednesday night, had gone out to a slow 8.
He was even less impressed when the weather forecast changed to rain for Tauranga this afternoon and evening.
That could cost Pinsoir even starting at Tauranga.
"He'd have to be doubtful if it got too bad," said a disappointed Duncan.
"The only moderating factor is that it'll be his last run - he can go for a spell."
Duncan nominated Pinsoir for the A$125,000 Henry Bucks Straight Six at Flemington tomorrow and tentatively engaged Glen Boss to ride, but the owners were not keen on the horse making the trip. Winning Hastings rider Matt Cameron has been engaged for Pinsoir at Tauranga.
This is always a difficult transition period for racing when tracks suddenly switch from good to slow and heavy. Winners can be difficult to find.
Topweight Elblitzem has not run since mid-November when he finished last to Sir Slick on this track, but that might not beat him.
Elblitzem generally races well when fresh. He resumed in this race a year ago and finished a handy third to Pindy and Albercheno, good form for this race.
The slight point of difference is that last year he carried 55.5kg and this time he has 58kg.
Some of his fresh runs have included a second to Richard Beymer and a big-finishing fourth to Culminate at Te Aroha as a 3-year-old.
Of his 10 starts on slow tracks, Elblitzem has won five times and been placed twice, a better record than any of his rivals tomorrow.
David Walsh, who rides him, knows the horse well.
In what is now a confusing field Cent Per Cent, Angelwithattitude and, possibly, Dasoudi, who was one of the stars in Pukekohe trackwork yesterday, if she manages the conditions, are worth considering.
