Racing: Class mares look dangers in the Kelt

By MIKE DILLON

This afternoon should go a long way to prove statistics in horse racing are a guide, but can be misleading if taken literally.

Stats for the $350,000 Kelt Capital Stakes show Cinder Bella has a 1-zip record at 2000m.

Come tomorrow, history will probably tell us the high class Levin mare has, in fact, been looking for exactly that distance.

If you need to confirm that, hark back to the video of the 1600m Challenge Stakes at Hastings last start when Cinder Bella was giving Hello Dolly what looked an impossible start in the lead with 220m to run.

She was one million dollars to a bottletop to get within one length of Hello Dolly, but took so much ground off her she was only a long neck away at the finish and in another two strides had the winner's measure.

Had that race been 1800m there is no doubt who the winner would have been.

While she covers huge ground when she winds up her sprint at 1600m, Cinder Bella is almost certainly going to be suited to the 2000m today, provided Lance O'Sullivan can find her a decent first 500m flight path from an outside barrier.

Hill Of Grace has a similar problem from the outside of 13 horses at the start. Her chance will depend almost entirely on getting across and obtaining cover to stay handy to the leaders. It will take an extraordinary effort to sprint this line-up home from the back of the field at the 500m.

Cinder Bella to prove the stats wrong, with Hill Of Grace the danger and Singalong the trifecta value.

Class shows and that's another truism Giovana (No1, R8) can go close to proving in the Kelt Memorial at Hastings. You would perhaps be more confident if the staying mare was lining up over 1600m, but today's 1400m is going to be more like 1600m with Hero and Saint Cecile setting up what's bound to be a slippery pace.

Giovana looked very forward to resume when she won at the Taupo trials a few weeks ago.

"We eased her a bit after that and she got away on us conditionwise, but we've got on top of that again," said owner and trainer Carol Marshall.

From the No4 barrier, Peter Johnson has options to give Giovana the right passage.

Pherozity (No5) is another high class mare, who will be finishing on strongly from mid-field in her first start since a luckless Sydney autumn campaign. She is much fitter after two recent barrier trials, the last of which she won by four lengths at Wanganui. Saint Cecile (No3) and Nobodywantsme (No9) look the trifecta runners.

Rooney (No3, R2) showed last season he is a sprinter with a future and fresh from a spell he appeals a lot from a handy barrier over 1200m. He ran in an open handicap at only his third career start and with still only six starts behind him, should be a better horse this campaign. Although often good enough to be beaten into the minor money, Doyle (No1) comes into this well with 55.5kg, via a 1kg Andrew Calder apprentice allowance. He and Kohinoor (No2) look the dangers.

Unbeaten Sedecrem (No2, R5) gets his chance with a fresh-up run to provide a pretty good idea what his 3-year-old potential might be. He impressed winning at the Pukekohe trials, getting home only narrowly, but doing it without being really asked for much. The No3 barrier should allow Lance O'Sullivan the right opportunity. Shinnecock (No1) looked good at two and gave every indication he would be much better this season. Today should tell.

Emerald Dream (No3, R6) comes into this race extremely well on 54.5kg under the new classifications. She looked forward to resume when finishing powerfully to score at the Te Awamutu trials.

Capebay (No7, R3) is a good each-way value bet at Matamata today. She has a good record fresh and should be sharpened by her recent second at the Taupo trials.

Miss Nicolight (No9, R7) is knocking on another win and should be suited by the step up to 2000m and Biennale (No5, R8) went a nice race when resuming at Hastings and looks well placed with Chris Rauhihi claiming 3kg.

Platonic (No2, R9) did the job beautifully at Pukekohe when coming back from a spell and trainer Graeme Richardson says the mare has progressed exceptionally well since that effort. There are a few chances to repel here, but she will go close to making it a double.