Although he meets a classy field in the Zabeel Classic, Survived will appreciate the step up to 2000m. Photo / APN
There is no question Chintz (No 6) would have made it three straight at Te Rapa last start had the gaps opened in the final 300m.
She goes close to taking the title of the most improved horse about the place and although drawn awkwardly in Race 5 at Ellerslie this afternoon, she rates highly.
The fact she can come from the back of the field late in the race provides Rory Hutchings with plenty of options from the tough draw. As she showed in winning here two starts back she can produce a withering late run. Queen's Rose (No 2) is showing she was previously under-rated and La Choix (No 3), fresh from a break, and Needlly (No 1) are capable of being right in this finish.
Enough points towards Zurella (No 8, R9) being the horse to beat in the $200,000 Zabeel Classic that her record as a non-winner on right-handed tracks becomes a little faded. Trainer Shaune Ritchie does not believe that is a telling statistic in this case and feels he has the classy mare in the right shape.
The 2000m weight-for-age races, particularly at Ellerslie are all about placements in running and tempo. Barrier draws are the main pointer to placement and two form runners Shuka (No 1) and Lady Kipling (No 4) are badly off in gates 10 and nine. Their chances depend almost solely on their riders' abilities to place them well in the first 600m.
Survived (No 3) is the difficult one to assess because he is well capable of beating all of these. Even though only fourth he was just .6 of a length behind winner Shuka in the Captain Cook Stakes at Trentham last start, but for him that's perhaps a fraction below his optimum.
Perhaps as his second run back from a break he needed more than the 1600m and was looking for a middle distance, which he gets this time. It makes sense to label that a totally forgive run.
The rain forecast for yesterday only helped the track, but if the showers predicted for today arrive through the programme that could make a bit of difference.
One who would enjoy any give at all in the footing is The Filly (No 4, R4), who is racing well. She drew out and came off a wide run to be narrowly beaten in the Concorde on this track last start and also impressed at Pukekohe before that.
This time, she has drawn better at six and she will come right into the frame if there are a few showers. Forefront (No 10) was huge at Te Rapa, finishing off strongly from well back and looked to have a bit to spare. This is tougher, but he is improving.
Hot In Pink (No 16) rises in class for this, but she would have won on this track last start but for drawing wide and having to work early. Pinzaara (No 12) narrowly beat her then went on to win the Concorde. Hot In Pink will have to find something extra this time, but she has 53kg and the one gate.
The Hombre (No 3) won this last year and also has a second in the Railway Stakes to his credit.
There are some useful maidens in Race 1, among them In Style (No 12) and Mr Doole (No 9).
In Style really caught the eye, flashing home from nowhere to place on debut on this track last start. She had to have learned something from that and she rates very highly this time. In that same race, Mr Doole didn't get to the finish quite as quickly as In Style, but he got home strongly, suggesting potential.
Mitcham (No 2) and Cheeky Boy (No 5) shouldn't be left out of multiples. Coachella (No 6, R2) made an impression on debut when she was narrowly beaten by Vespa at Trentham, fighting powerfully right to the line.
She has drawn nicely here, which will be important and looks a filly with plenty of bottom to her.
Quite a tricky race with Skipper (No 12) impressing at the barrier trials and Red Striker (No 8) having shown a bit.
Fiftyshadesofgrey (No 11, R3) certainly got over the line strongly in the bookshops and you have to be impressed by the way the horse with the identical name does exactly the same on the racetrack.
She meets a pretty good field this time and has drawn wide, but if she produces a finish that got her the prize at Avondale last start, she won't be out of it.
Travino (No1) has a bit of weight, but he also has the rails draw and will be in this for a good way.
Costa Viva (No 2, R6) is all class. She hasn't raced since winning the 1000 Guineas at Riccarton, but trainer Jason Bridgman says her Cambridge barrier trial has got her close enough to perfect shape.
She is as good as any of the fillies and if she gets the right run from a reasonably tough draw she should go close to winning.
It will be interesting to see how Procurement (No 7) handles the step up to 1600m at only her third start and also handles Ellerslie. Her class is not in doubt, but she will elevate to a new level if she can master this race.
Stablemates Hera (No 3) and Miss Foxwood (No 9) are musts for all multiple bettors.
Lucia Valentina (No 14, R7) has looked at least as impressive in her spring form as the male 3-year-olds and if she can master her first attempt at Ellerslie she is going to take plenty of beating in the Great Northern Guineas.
She has produced the most devastating finish of any of the 3-year-olds and although that's all been left-handed, trainer Stephen Marsh is unconcerned.
Chambord (No 1) is a classy customer and although, being a Zabeel, his form will peak when he gets beyond 1600m, he is fresh enough for this race.
Remains to be seen if the 59kg is too much for topweight The Tidy Express (No 1, R8). She is worth consideration though after her gallant stakes placing in very strong company last start.
If the weight becomes an issue, Ray's Girl (No 4) could be the value. She looked a race short last time and pulled very hard, which she can do, and should be able to finish this race off better.